European natural gas prices have risen once more, as traders pivot their attention from mild weather forecasts to the latest developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. Concerns over potential supply disruptions are outweighing the anticipated impact on heating demand.

With more U.S. market participants entering the market on Friday, the price of the April futures contract rebounded, reversing earlier losses. The market experienced significant volatility throughout the week, highlighting its continued sensitivity to geopolitical risks, even as underlying fundamentals weaken.

Any escalation of tensions in the Middle East could threaten shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global liquefied natural gas and commodity transport. Although an agreement has been reached to continue talks next week, the increased U.S. military presence in the region is providing support for oil prices.

Europe is about to enter the final month of the heating season, with temperatures expected to remain elevated and significantly above seasonal averages until mid-March. This is helping to limit further withdrawals from natural gas storage facilities, which are currently at levels well below the norm for this time of year.

On Friday, as of 1:39 PM Amsterdam time, the benchmark Dutch natural gas contract for April delivery was up 1.6%, trading at €32.66 per megawatt-hour, positioning the contract for a weekly gain.