Abstract

DexCom will report fourth-quarter results on February 12, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates consensus and company guidance to frame expectations for revenue, gross margin, net margin, and adjusted EPS, alongside key business drivers and analyst perspectives across the past six months.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-indicated projections point to fourth-quarter revenue of USD 1.25 billion, gross profit margin around 60.48%, net profit margin near 23.47%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.65, implying year-over-year growth of 12.80% for revenue and 30.15% for EPS. The main business highlights remain anchored in continuous glucose monitoring systems, with channel mix favoring distribution and stable direct sales outlook tied to ongoing sensor adoption. The most promising segment is distribution with revenue of USD 1.03 billion and healthy expansion on broader payer coverage and international uptake year over year.

Last Quarter Review

DexCom’s prior quarter delivered revenue of USD 1.21 billion, gross profit margin of 60.48%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.28 billion, net profit margin of 23.47%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.61, reflecting solid year-over-year increases. A key highlight was EBIT of USD 272.90 million, modestly exceeding estimates, underpinned by operating leverage from higher volumes and disciplined spending. The main business highlights featured distribution revenue of USD 1.03 billion and direct sales revenue of USD 0.18 billion, with growth supported by wider commercial coverage and geographic expansion.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: CGM Systems and Channel Mix

DexCom’s core revenue in continuous glucose monitoring systems is expected to be driven by sustained adoption among Type 1 and insulin-using Type 2 populations, with continued broadening of reimbursement and formulary positioning. The distribution channel, which accounts for the majority of sales, is likely to capture incremental volumes as payers and pharmacies streamline CGM access for patients, providing a smoother onboarding process and retention. Direct sales should remain a stable complement where DexCom engages closely with clinicians and patients, but its share of total revenue is expected to be smaller relative to distribution. Operational execution around sensor supply and software integration is poised to support consistent gross profit margin performance near recent levels. The company’s marketing and education efforts are geared toward improving adherence and replacing legacy finger-stick methods, an approach that enhances recurring sensor revenue visibility. Any pricing mix shifts tied to coverage changes may modestly affect margins, but cost discipline and economies of scale are positioned to offset.

Most Promising Business: Distribution-Led Expansion

The distribution segment appears positioned for continued growth, with revenue of USD 1.03 billion last quarter and favorable year-over-year trends expected to extend into the current quarter. Pharmacy channel penetration can accelerate adoption, given simplified patient access and prescription fulfillment, while international distributors expand reach in markets with rising CGM awareness and reimbursement progress. The scalability of distribution supports efficient logistics and customer support, which can maintain reorder rates and reduce churn, reinforcing revenue durability. As new device iterations and software features roll into broader networks, distributors can quickly diffuse updates, amplifying uptake without requiring heavy direct sales investments. The segment’s growth also aligns with higher-margin efficiency, supporting EBIT improvement and underpinning the forecast adjusted EPS trajectory. Potential tailwinds include employer-sponsored plan inclusion and broader payer coverage for non-intensive Type 2 diabetes patients, which can materially widen the addressable market.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Share performance this quarter will be most sensitive to revenue growth durability relative to mid-teens expectations and any signals regarding gross margin stability around 60.48%. Guidance for adjusted EPS versus the USD 0.65 estimate will be scrutinized alongside operating expense discipline, especially in sales and marketing as DexCom scales distribution. Commentary on payer coverage expansion, international reimbursement wins, and product transition pacing can influence sentiment, as these factors directly impact both volume trajectories and margin mix. Investors will also focus on competitive dynamics in CGM, including pricing strategies and innovation cadence, as these shape the company’s ability to sustain share gains. Any indication of supply constraints or delays in new features could temper the outlook, whereas clarity on roadmap execution and customer retention metrics may bolster confidence.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst commentary over the recent period has been constructive overall, with a majority expressing bullish views tied to revenue growth resilience and margin consistency. Noted institutions have emphasized the strength of DexCom’s channel strategy and recurring revenue profile, pointing to above-consensus potential if reimbursement momentum remains intact. Positive perspectives highlight the combination of stable gross profit margins near 60.48% and operating leverage that supports EBIT of USD 307.38 million and adjusted EPS of USD 0.65 for the quarter. Bullish calls center on distribution-led scaling, continued adoption within insulin-using Type 2 patients, and international acceleration as key levers for sustained growth. The constructive stance also reflects confidence in the company’s ability to navigate competitive pricing while preserving profitability metrics, with forecast year-over-year revenue growth of 12.80% and EPS growth of 30.15% reinforcing the outlook.