Abstract

CNH Industrial N.V. will report quarterly results on February 17, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview distills the latest market forecasts, last quarter’s performance markers, and the majority analyst stance to frame expectations and near-term stock drivers.

Market Forecast

Consensus indicators point to revenue of $4.61 billion for the current quarter, implying year-over-year growth of 2.14%, with EPS forecast at $0.10 and EBIT at $115.64 million; year-over-year forecasts suggest a decline for EPS and EBIT, while revenue edges up and margin pressure persists. Company guidance and forecasting frameworks imply a focus on stabilizing gross profit margin and net income margin from the last quarter’s base, though explicit gross margin and net margin targets were not provided; adjusted EPS is forecast at $0.10 year over year downtrend implied.

Industrial Activities remain the revenue core with performance expected to hinge on end-market demand normalization in agriculture and construction equipment, while Financial Services is anticipated to deliver steadier, countercyclical earnings. The most promising segment is Financial Services, where relatively resilient credit spreads and portfolio growth can underpin revenue near $0.68 billion with year-over-year stability to modest growth as funding costs ease.

Last Quarter Review

CNH Industrial N.V.’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $4.40 billion, a gross profit margin of 17.62%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $80.00 million with a 1.82% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS of $0.08; year-over-year trajectories indicated contraction consistent with a soft demand backdrop. A notable financial highlight was the sequential contraction in parent net profit by 62.44%, underscoring profit compression from mix and pricing normalization after an extended post-pandemic cycle. By business line, Industrial Activities produced $3.70 billion in revenue and Financial Services contributed $0.68 billion, with the remainder from eliminations and other items.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Industrial Activities

Industrial Activities, encompassing agriculture and construction equipment, remains the principal earnings driver and the primary source of volatility this quarter. The forecasted revenue lift to $4.61 billion at the group level suggests shipments and dealer inventory levels are stabilizing from prior destocking, but the forecasted EPS and EBIT declines imply that pricing power is ebbing and manufacturing absorption is still suboptimal. The last quarter’s 17.62% gross margin forms a realistic baseline; with lower volume leverage and a more promotional market, gross margin is likely to remain capped, and the mix shift toward lower-horsepower or compact equipment could incrementally compress margins. Operating expense discipline remains pivotal to defending EBIT; targeted cost savings and footprint optimization can mitigate some deleverage, but the forecasted EBIT of $115.64 million indicates that the margin recovery will be gradual rather than immediate.

Most promising business: Financial Services

Financial Services showed revenue of $0.68 billion last quarter and is positioned to provide a steadier contribution this quarter. Portfolio yields have tended to reprice with benchmark rates, and if funding costs begin to normalize as forward curves imply, net interest margin can improve modestly even if originations are flat to slightly down. Credit performance bears watching given late-cycle dynamics in agriculture, but reserve builds appear to have been prudently calibrated through the past year. Assuming stable delinquency trends, Financial Services can sustain mid-to-high teens ROE-equivalent performance, helping cushion group-level EPS even as equipment margins face pressure. This segment’s resilience, coupled with selective growth in service offerings and digital underwriting enhancements, supports the case for incremental revenue and earnings stability versus core manufacturing.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

Margin trajectory is the primary swing factor for the shares near term. If gross margin holds around the recent 17% handle with early signs of cost tailwinds from component and freight easing, sentiment could improve despite light EPS. Order intake and backlog visibility for mid- to large-horsepower tractors and specialty equipment will also drive narrative, as these categories are more sensitive to farm income cycles and have been under pressure; stabilization here would be viewed constructively. Lastly, Financial Services credit metrics—delinquencies, charge-offs, and provisioning—will be parsed closely; benign credit trends can reinforce a floor for earnings, whereas any uptick in losses would likely amplify concerns about the durability of the equipment cycle and compress valuation multiples.

Analyst Opinions

Among recently published views, the majority stance skews positive: several global houses maintain or move to Buy, while a minority hold neutral ratings. Notably, Goldman Sachs upgraded CNH Industrial N.V. to Buy with a $13.00 price target, citing an “approaching earnings trough” and potential upside to consensus as valuation remains undemanding. Morgan Stanley reiterated a Buy with a $15.00 target, highlighting positive growth prospects and operational improvements despite cyclical headwinds. Barclays maintained a Buy and a $14.00 target, pointing to execution on cost actions and the potential for margin normalization as inventories align with demand. Meanwhile, Bank of America Securities and D.A. Davidson stayed at Hold with targets around $10.00–$11.00, reflecting caution on near-term margin pressure and dealer inventory digestion.

On balance, the ratio of bullish to bearish/neutral opinions is tilted positive, with Buy ratings outweighing Holds in the recent period. The bullish case emphasizes that consensus may underappreciate the operating leverage available as production schedules align with retail demand and as pricing normalizes against easier comparatives in the second half. Supportive elements include ongoing cost programs, incremental aftermarket and precision agriculture monetization, and a stabilizing rate environment that could aid Financial Services profitability. The neutral camp counters that visibility on farmer cash flows and construction end markets remains limited, keeping a cap on near-term multiples until order intake and backlog trends inflect. Considering the weighted tilt toward positive recommendations and explicit upgrade activity, the prevailing institutional view anticipates a gradual margin rebuild from an earnings trough, with upside risk if revenue mix improves and costs track plan.