According to a research report released by Orient Securities, escalating conflicts in the Middle East have driven up the benchmark energy price center in Europe. Combined with Europe's long-term strategic energy transition considerations, authorities continue to subsidize economically advantageous heat pump heating and cooling equipment, ushering in a strategic development period for related export chain companies. Mainline one: China's heat pump unit exports are mostly OEM-based, with self-branded exports being relatively scarce. The accelerated penetration period for heat pumps in Europe is expected to bring about valuation increases. Mainline two: The upstream heat pump industry involves compressors, motors, and metal processing businesses, where order elasticity for related components is projected to be significant. Orient Securities' primary views are as follows:

Heat pump exports saw a significant surge in April, with growth accelerating month-on-month. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's export value of heat pump-related products and components in April 2026 reached USD 304 million, a year-on-year increase of 39%, representing a 31-percentage-point acceleration compared to the March growth rate. The cumulative export value from January to April 2026 was USD 1.08 billion, up 29% year-on-year. Within this, unit exports amounted to USD 89 million, growing 16% year-on-year. As of April, heat pump exports have maintained year-on-year growth for two consecutive years, with April's growth rate showing a substantial leap from March's 8%, indicating a robust recovery trend as global demand enters its peak season.

Exports to the EU continued to show accelerating growth, while North America and Africa maintained steady expansion. Customs data shows that in April 2026, heat pump exports to the EU accounted for 45.6% of the global export value, a slight decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month. Exports to the 27 EU member states reached USD 139 million in April, a year-on-year increase of 77.9%. The cumulative export value from January to April 2026 was USD 487 million, up 60.4% year-on-year. By country, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, France, and Germany were the top five export markets. April export values to these countries grew by 137.0%, 27.5%, 105.5%, 55.5%, and 129.1% year-on-year, respectively. Together, these top five markets accounted for 67.6% of the total exports to the EU-27, with the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany achieving more than doubling their exports, demonstrating a pronounced leading effect. Compared to the "bottoming out and stabilizing" recovery trend in the European market in 2025, Europe has clearly entered a recovery channel in 2026. Driven by both continued policy subsidies and rising energy prices, end-user demand continues to be released, solidifying Europe's position as the core and most certain growth pole for global heat pump exports.

The North American market (US, Canada, Mexico) also showed signs of marginal improvement, with April exports valued at USD 38 million, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%, accounting for 12.4% of the market share, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous month. By country, the United States led with exports of USD 27 million, growing 69.6% year-on-year. Canada and Mexico saw year-on-year growth of 59.0% and 0.3%, respectively. The African market's export value in April was USD 2 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 94.4%. This follows March exports of USD 1 million, which grew 39.6% year-on-year, marking a notable 54.8 percentage point acceleration in April compared to March.

The EU's clean energy plan intensifies, highlighting the economic advantages of heat pump replacement. On April 22, the EU released a plan to accelerate the transition to local clean energy, which includes a target to increase annual heat pump sales to 4 million units by 2030, speeding up Europe's electrification and clean energy transition. According to official EU statistics, switching from a gas boiler to a heat pump can reduce household heating costs by 20%-60%. Particularly in the Netherlands, where electricity is on average 1.5 times more expensive than gas, switching to a heat pump can reduce costs by up to 80%. Data from CONCITO indicates that if French households switch to heat pumps and electric vehicles, they could save EUR 3,079 annually. Similar annual savings for Spain, Germany, and Italy are estimated at EUR 2,000, EUR 1,950, and EUR 1,780, respectively. As European gas prices have risen from EUR 28/MWh at the beginning of the year to EUR 46/MWh, the residential sector is gradually shifting towards clean energy. Coupled with ongoing targeted government subsidies that continue to shorten the payback period, the economic benefits of heat pumps are becoming increasingly prominent. Policy dividends are expected to provide fundamental support for sustained export growth.

Risk warnings include the risk of a rapid short-term decline in European energy prices, the risk of reductions in European heat pump subsidies, and the risk of tariff disruptions.