Gold's "War Logic": Surge or Peak? Wall Street Debates the Path Ahead

Deep News
Mar 02

Following military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, uncertainty in global markets has intensified. Investors are closely monitoring potential flows of safe-haven capital into gold.

Here is a selection of views from investors, traders, and analysts:

Edward Meir, Analyst at Marex: "A knee-jerk spike is expected across most commodity markets, including gold and oil. This is a natural reaction to the outbreak of hostilities, the scale and scope of which were quite unexpected. Gold could open around $200 per ounce higher but may subsequently pare gains during the trading day. Markets tend to remain relatively calm in the face of military conflict; ultimately, investors focus solely on potential oil supply disruptions, so initial rallies often fade after the first surge."

Hugo Pascal, Precious Metals Trader at InProved: "With traditional exchanges closed, tokenized gold traded at a premium over the weekend, signaling a bullish, risk-off sentiment ahead of the new week's opening. Our digital proxies showed strong weekend buying. While weekend proxy premiums often exaggerate the initial price gap, they accurately indicate the direction of the trend."

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade: "Demand for gold is likely to be higher than usual as markets open on Monday. Given risks such as the potential duration of the conflict, the possibility of further nations being drawn in, and inflation concerns, gold is expected to reclaim its status as the preferred safe-haven asset. Equities and other risk assets may face selling pressure as investors seek the best places to park capital, with gold likely topping the list."

Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com: "Additional safe-haven demand for gold could drive prices toward the $5,500 per ounce level again, potentially surpassing the January peak near $5,600 to set a new record high. However, a potential rebound in the U.S. dollar, especially if crude oil prices rise sharply, may cap gains beyond that level."

Tai Wong, Independent Metals Trader: "Gold and silver might initially sell off on a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' reaction at the open, but any significant decline should attract buyers, as the situation regarding Iran is unlikely to be resolved clearly for weeks or months. I believe the U.S. strikes were largely priced in, with only the timing being somewhat uncertain. This has certainly been reflected in the oil market."

Soni Kumari, Analyst at ANZ: "The initial price reaction on Monday will be positive, though some intraday pullbacks are possible as events unfold. Our overall view remains unchanged; we are still bullish on gold... The geopolitical landscape this year is very different, with tensions more intense. Following this attack, macro implications could also emerge, particularly if oil prices rise significantly."

Joshua Rotbart, Founder and Managing Partner at J. Rotbart & Co.: "It is reasonable to expect precious metals to experience increased volatility with an upward price bias. Since the risk of war with Iran was partly priced in during gold's previous advance, the magnitude of price movement will depend on the conflict's impact on energy markets and whether a change in Iran's regime becomes a feasible outcome."

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank: "This is undoubtedly a worrying escalation that will drive investors toward precious metals and energy. No one can be sure of the extent of the impact, but given last week's momentum, I would not be surprised to see gold hit a new all-time high."

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10