CITIC Securities released a research report projecting that CMOC (03993) will achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 19.989 billion, RMB 24.800 billion, and RMB 27.928 billion for 2025-2027, respectively. This translates to PE ratios of 16.28x, 13.12x, and 11.65x based on the current share price. Considering the company's industry position, growth potential, and low-cost advantages, CITIC maintains a "Buy" rating.

Driven by the optimization and expansion of two world-class projects, TFM and KFM, CMOC's copper output in the first three quarters rose 14% YoY to 543,400 tonnes. The company announced plans to invest up to USD 1.084 billion in the KFM Phase II project, expected to commence production in 2027, adding an average annual output of 100,000 tonnes of copper metal upon completion. Key highlights from CITIC's report include:

**Strong Q3 2025 Results:** CMOC reported revenue of RMB 145.485 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders surging 72.61% YoY to RMB 14.280 billion, setting a new record for the period and surpassing full-year 2024 results. Q3 net profit alone reached RMB 5.608 billion, up 96.40% YoY and 18.69% QoQ.

**KFM Phase II Investment Approved:** On October 24, 2025, CMOC's board approved an investment of up to USD 1.084 billion for the KFM Phase II project in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

**Production Growth:** Copper output in the first three quarters rose 14.14% YoY to 543,400 tonnes, while sales increased 10.56% to 520,300 tonnes. Other outputs—cobalt (88,000 tonnes), molybdenum (10,611 tonnes), tungsten (6,000 tonnes), niobium (7,841 tonnes), and phosphate fertilizers (912,800 tonnes)—also exceeded targets. The company is advancing its long-term goal of producing 800,000–1 million tonnes of copper annually. Additionally, construction is underway for the 220 MW Heshima hydropower station to secure local electricity supply.

**Commodity Prices:** In Q3 2025, the average LME copper spot price rose 2.9% QoQ to USD 9,797/tonne. Prices for cobalt, ferromolybdenum, APT, ferroniobium, and monoammonium phosphate increased by 11.4%, 18.0%, 38.9%, 3.4%, and 0.6% QoQ, respectively.

**Cost Efficiency:** Despite robust production and sales, CMOC reduced operating costs by 10.94% YoY through refined management and technological innovation. The company plans further operational improvements to drive growth.

**Cobalt Market Outlook:** The DRC government allocated export quotas on October 11, 2025, granting CMOC the largest share (6,500 tonnes for the remainder of 2025, or 35.9% of the total). Based on current allocations, CMOC is expected to receive 31,200 tonnes in 2026, representing 27.3% of its 2024 output. With DRC's export quotas limiting supply to 96,600 tonnes over the next two years (a reduction of ~100,000 tonnes), the cobalt market—previously in surplus—could shift to a deficit of ~30,000 tonnes, supporting higher price trends.