Financial intelligence outlet reports that BOCOM International has released a research note, reducing its target price for MINISO Group Holding Limited (09896) from HK$45.5 to HK$26.4, while maintaining a "Buy" recommendation.

The firm lowered its earnings forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 by 9% to 23%, reflecting adjustments in overseas markets and higher expense ratio assumptions driven by large-format stores in China and IP-related investments.

BOCOM noted that the company's first-half 2026 revenue increased 22.4% year-over-year to RMB 11.5 billion, while adjusted operating profit rose 5% to RMB 1.63 billion. Adjusted net profit declined 1.7% to RMB 1.22 billion, primarily due to selling expense pressure.

Management has revised its guidance, now expecting mid-teens group revenue growth for fiscal 2026 (previously high-teens). Specifically, second-half revenue for MINISO's China and overseas operations is projected to grow at mid-single-digit and low-single-digit rates year-over-year, respectively, while TOP TOY revenue is expected to remain flat. Full-year adjusted operating profit is seen declining by a high-single-digit percentage, with adjusted operating margin down 3 to 4 percentage points. Management considers 2026 a cyclical margin trough.