Abstract
DoorDash, Inc. will release fourth-quarter results on February 18, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to strong year-over-year growth in revenue, EBIT, and adjusted EPS as investors watch margin execution and the uptake of new retail partnerships.Market Forecast
Consensus estimates for DoorDash, Inc.’s fourth quarter indicate total revenue of 3.99 billion USD, up 40.52% year over year, with adjusted EPS of 0.59 and EBIT of 223.28 million USD, reflecting forecast year-over-year gains of 77.56% and 116.36%, respectively. Forecasts do not specify gross profit margin or net profit margin, but the revenue and earnings trajectory suggests expectations for continued scale benefits; adjusted EPS growth is projected to outpace revenue expansion.The core marketplace remains the primary driver, supported by sustained consumer engagement and subscription adoption, where performance in the prior quarter created a higher baseline for delivery volumes. The segment with the strongest growth potential is the core platform itself, which generated 3.28 billion USD last quarter amid total revenue growth of 27.35% year over year, with recent category additions expected to deepen adoption across retail and convenience.
Last Quarter Review
DoorDash, Inc. delivered third-quarter revenue of 3.45 billion USD, a gross profit margin of 51.04%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.24 billion USD, a net profit margin of 7.08%, and adjusted EPS of 0.55, representing 44.74% year-over-year growth; the quarter-on-quarter change in GAAP net profit was -14.39%.A notable financial highlight was EBIT rising 141.12% year over year to 258.00 million USD, underscoring operating leverage even as net profit moderated quarter on quarter. The core business posted 3.28 billion USD in revenue within the quarter while total revenue increased 27.35% year over year, indicating solid activity on the platform amid steady order frequency and targeted promotional intensity.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main Business: Core Marketplace Revenue and Earnings Quality
DoorDash, Inc.’s core marketplace is expected to anchor fourth-quarter performance, with consensus revenue at 3.99 billion USD, up 40.52% year over year, and adjusted EPS at 0.59, up 77.56% year over year. The magnitude of EPS growth relative to revenue implies that management’s execution on operating costs, incentives, and product mix is viewed as favorably aligned to profitability. The third-quarter gross margin of 51.04% established a high bar; while no margin forecast has been provided, consensus EPS and EBIT trends point to continued leverage on overhead and efficiency gains. The subscription flywheel—particularly through DashPass—likely supports both order frequency and subsidy efficiency, given the observed elasticity of demand for convenience categories and the layering of non-restaurant assortments into the core flow. On the cost side, moderation in promotions relative to prior expansion periods can help preserve unit economics; however, the quarter-on-quarter decline in GAAP net profit (-14.39%) in the preceding quarter illustrates the need for disciplined promotional allocation in peak seasonal windows when per-order variable costs and incentives can be volatile.Operationally, the cash costs of last-mile delivery remain sensitive to courier supply, geographic density, and mix of batchable orders; the EBIT forecast of 223.28 million USD (+116.36% year over year) suggests expectations for favorable batching and routing conditions against elevated year-ago holiday comparables. With demand concentrated around key retail and food occasions in late Q4, any shift in average order value or completion rates can push realized margins—both at gross and net levels—away from modeled averages. Still, consensus looks for accelerated growth across the platform and earnings outperformance relative to last year, indicating confidence that service-level stability and platform-scale efficiencies will outweigh seasonal cost headwinds. In the context of last quarter’s 7.08% net profit margin, investors will closely parse whether fourth-quarter adjusted EPS upside lands through cost controls, improved take rates, or mix shifts toward higher-value orders.
Most Promising Business: Retail and Category Expansion within the Core Platform
DoorDash, Inc.’s category expansion into retail and convenience remains a prominent growth vector inside the core platform, with fresh partnerships designed to broaden the purchase occasions beyond restaurants. In January 2026, the company announced a partnership with fashion retailer Hibbett, adding on-demand access to footwear, apparel, and accessories, and incorporating the offering into DashPass—an incremental catalyst for subscription utility and repeat engagement. While segment-level revenue disclosure is limited, the broader revenue forecast for the quarter—3.99 billion USD up 40.52% year over year—implicitly embeds momentum from newer categories that can augment average order value and fill non-traditional demand windows. Retail partners typically contribute items with different margin profiles than prepared food, which can diversify gross profit outcomes and potentially increase basket sizes, although delivery economics vary based on SKU weight, packaging, and fulfillment complexity.From an execution standpoint, the retail category relies on tight integration with POS systems and inventory, and the more complete the product catalog, the more likely customers will capture a portion of the shopping journey via the platform. This breadth can drive frequency among subscription users, leveraging DashPass benefits to expand wallet share. The Hibbett partnership reflects a pragmatic approach to adding lifestyle brands that align with consumer demand peaks for athletic essentials and seasonal apparel. Because retail orders often include standardized SKU sets and repeatable logistics, pick-and-pack efficiency and store-level readiness become essential to uptime and on-time delivery; these operational details can shape margin performance without materially changing the customer-facing experience. The market’s expectation of more than double growth in EBIT year over year suggests investors believe retail additions will complement existing density to support route efficiency and minimize idle time, thereby strengthening contribution margins in the quarter.
Key Stock Price Drivers: Deliverability, Margin Trajectory, and Consensus versus Print
The most significant stock-price sensitivities for this quarter revolve around deliverability against the consensus print, the durability of margin gains, and signals about category expansion uptake. First, the revenue forecast at 3.99 billion USD and EPS at 0.59 set a high comparator against last year’s base; deviations on either metric could prompt swift recalibration of near-term valuation multiples. Upside to EBIT (+116.36% year over year is the expectation) would be read as proof of operating leverage persisting beyond the holiday peak, while any shortfall—particularly in the context of last quarter’s 51.04% gross margin—would lead investors to examine the mix of promotions and partner incentives in retail and convenience categories, where margin structures differ from restaurants. Second, the trend in net profitability will be assessed alongside adjusted EPS to determine whether non-GAAP performance is tracking with GAAP improvements; last quarter’s net profit margin of 7.08% provides a reference point, and commentary on subsidy efficiency, courier cost dynamics, and per-order profitability will matter.Third, newly added retail categories—such as the Hibbett collaboration—serve as practical tests of category breadth and the platform’s ability to scale beyond traditional delivery use cases. Analysts are likely to probe category adoption, repeat rates, and the impact on subscription utility, because these factors can reinforce the revenue run-rate in shoulder periods between food-heavy seasons. In price-target updates observed in late January, some institutions adjusted targets while maintaining constructive ratings, implying an emphasis on incremental profitability signals rather than a change in the underlying growth thesis. A credible path to sustained EPS expansion, supported by operational routing gains and more efficient incentives, can help the company meet or surpass consensus, while a weaker-than-expected cost profile would introduce questions about the balance of growth investments and margin discipline. As such, qualitative commentary on marketplace health, partner traction in newer categories, and the outlook for per-order economics will be pivotal in shaping investor reaction after the print.
Analyst Opinions
Across January to February, institutional commentary has largely leaned positive, with notable firms reaffirming constructive views while fine-tuning price targets. Guggenheim maintained a Buy rating and adjusted its target to 275 USD, and Goldman Sachs kept a Buy rating while trimming its target to 267 USD on January 26, indicating confidence in the earnings trajectory despite modest recalibration of valuation assumptions. UBS maintained a Neutral rating with a target of 245 USD, and Stifel held to a Hold rating while reducing its target to 224 USD, framing a more balanced stance that prioritizes proof of margin durability and sustained growth execution. Aggregated data during the period indicated an average rating of overweight and a mean price target near the high-200s, signaling that the prevailing institutional lens remains favorable on fourth-quarter performance and the forward setup.The ratio of bullish versus bearish views in the January–February window is decisively tilted toward bullish, with Buy or equivalent ratings outnumbering Sell or Underperform calls; within this period, bearish calls were not prevalent, while neutrals and holds formed the minority perspective. Guggenheim’s Buy stance underscores expectations for durable top-line growth and improving operating metrics, while Goldman Sachs’ Buy with a lower target reflects attention to valuation relative to the pace of profitability gains—suggesting the potential for upside if EPS and EBIT surprise positively against consensus. UBS’s Neutral rating outlines a measured view, implying the need for ongoing evidence that retail and convenience category additions contribute to stable revenue growth without undue pressure on per-order economics; Stifel’s Hold aligns with a desire to see further margin confirmation in the wake of last quarter’s quarter-on-quarter net profit moderation.
From an analytical perspective, the majority opinion is anchored on several key assertions. First, consensus revenue growth of 40.52% year over year is seen as attainable given the higher base established in the third quarter and the structural role of subscriptions in elevating frequency. Second, the projected 77.56% growth in adjusted EPS and 116.36% growth in EBIT indicate that investors expect efficiency gains and prudent promotional allocation to persist through the seasonally active fourth quarter, particularly as retail partnerships like Hibbett deepen category breadth. Third, institutions favor management’s trajectory of aligning new category growth with margin-aware logistics, reading the recent target adjustments as tweaking of valuation guardrails rather than a reversal of the growth outlook. The constructive stance is therefore contingent on evidence of continued routing and batching improvements, subsidy optimization, and balanced promotional spend—factors that would support both top-line resilience and profitability through the quarter and into the next fiscal year.
In the event of an earnings beat on revenue and adjusted EPS, bullish institutions are likely to highlight the compounding effect of subscription adoption, the expanding category mix, and the demonstrated operating leverage. Conversely, if EPS or EBIT tracks below consensus despite strong revenue, constructive viewpoints may pivot to questions about cost allocation or category mix, though the absence of widespread bearish ratings suggests that the baseline expectation remains supportive. As DoorDash, Inc. approaches its fourth-quarter release on February 18, 2026 Post Market, the majority analyst lens remains aligned with robust year-over-year growth and a path toward sustained profitability, with ongoing scrutiny on the balance between growth investments and margin execution shaping valuation into the print.