Today (December 9), the market consolidated, with the nonferrous metals sector leading the decline. The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876), which tracks industry leaders, followed the market downturn, with its intraday price dropping over 2%. Notably, as of press time, the ETF recorded a net inflow of 24 million shares, reflecting investor confidence in the sector's outlook and opportunistic buying during the dip.
According to Shenzhen Stock Exchange data, the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) saw a net inflow of 216.5 million yuan yesterday. As of December 8, the ETF's latest AUM stood at 739 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index.
Among its constituents, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals and CMOC Group fell over 4%, while Aluminum Corporation of China, Nanshan Aluminum, and Jiangxi Copper declined more than 3%, dragging down the index. On the other hand, Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium rose over 3%, Lizhong Group gained more than 1%, and Shandong Gold Mining and Yongxing Materials edged higher.
Macro-wise, the Federal Reserve will begin its monetary policy meeting this Tuesday, with results announced on Wednesday. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, there is an 89.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, with a 10.6% chance of rates remaining unchanged. CITIC Securities noted that as long as the Fed remains in a rate-cutting cycle (with further cuts expected), nonferrous metals prices could continue rising.
On the industrial front, global copper prices hit a new record high. Orient Securities highlighted that supply shortages and tariff concerns may further drive copper prices higher. The supply-demand imbalance between mining and smelting could ease under expectations of "anti-internal competition" policies, with smelting fees likely stabilizing. The firm remains bullish on medium-term copper prices and smelting fees.
Looking ahead, Orient Securities pointed out that during Fed rate-cutting cycles, tight supply-demand dynamics for physical assets—even minor imbalances—can lead to significant price elasticity. The current cycle may herald a supercycle for industrial metals like copper and aluminum. The firm expects strong demand for copper from power investments in 2026, aluminum demand growth from energy storage and substitution, and inflationary pressures from surging industrial metals prices, recommending focus on copper, aluminum, and gold sectors.
[Cyclical Opportunity Arrives: "Nonferrous Bull Run" May Continue] Different nonferrous metals exhibit varying cycles, drivers, and performance, making diversification essential. The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds (Class A: 017140; Class C: 017141) provide broad exposure to copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, offering risk diversification compared to single-metal investments.
Risk Disclosure: The Nonferrous Metals ETF passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (base date: December 31, 2013; launch date: July 13, 2015). The index's annual returns for the past five years are: 2020: +35.84%; 2021: +35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: +2.96%. Constituents are adjusted per index rules, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Constituent mentions are not investment advice or indicative of fund holdings. The fund is rated R3 (moderate risk) and suitable for balanced (C3) or higher-risk investors. Investment decisions based on this information are solely at the investor's discretion. No liability is assumed for direct or indirect losses from using this content. Fund investments carry risks; past performance does not predict future results, and other fund performance does not guarantee this fund's returns.