Abstract

Global-E Online Ltd. will report on February 18, 2026, Pre-Market; current projections point to revenue of $327.94 million and adjusted EPS of $0.32, setting expectations for a sequentially expanding profit base and operational efficiency improvements.

Market Forecast

Market expectations for Global-E Online Ltd. this quarter center on revenue of $327.94 million, a year-over-year increase of 30.70%, and adjusted EPS of $0.32, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 286,163.64%; the forecast EBIT stands at $57.57 million, up 4,599.38% year-over-year. Based on recent performance, the company’s main business remains anchored by delivery services and service fees, with the near-term outlook linked to unit economics, take-rate durability, and cost discipline. The most promising segment is delivery services, which generated $117.32 million last quarter; overall revenue expanded 25.46% year-over-year, signaling continued momentum into the current quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Global-E Online Ltd. delivered revenue of $220.78 million, a gross profit margin of 45.13%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $13.18 million, a net profit margin of 5.97%, and adjusted EPS of $0.07, up 153.85% year-over-year. A key highlight was profitability inflection at the operating line: EBIT reached $17.08 million, rising 181.19% year-over-year and surpassing estimates by $3.06 million, indicating improving operating leverage. By business mix, delivery services contributed $117.32 million while service fees contributed $103.46 million; total revenue rose 25.46% year-over-year, underscoring broad-based growth across the core offerings.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Delivery Services

Delivery services sit at the center of Global-E Online Ltd.’s revenue engine, proven by last quarter’s $117.32 million contribution and the unit’s critical role in monetizing merchant volumes. The delivery economics will be shaped by negotiated carrier rates, geographic shipping mix, and the density of shipments across key corridors, which together influence per-order cost and gross margin capture. The progression of gross margin in the prior quarter to 45.13% provides evidence that the company is balancing scale with pricing discipline, with levers including packaging optimization, in-region fulfillment, and better carrier performance metrics supporting margin continuity. With this quarter’s revenue estimated at $327.94 million and EBIT forecast at $57.57 million, delivery services should maintain a substantial share of the mix, aided by peak shopping periods and merchandise velocity that enhances consolidated shipment efficiencies. Operational throughput improvements typically translate to higher margin per shipment as fixed logistics costs are spread across larger volumes; this can be amplified by upgrades in route planning and label procurement that reduce exceptions and returns. The quarter-on-quarter net profit acceleration of 25.66% last quarter points to a business exiting the previous period with healthy momentum, offering a platform for unit-cost reductions to cascade through to net profit margin. Attention will be paid to currency effects and customs dynamics, since FX swings and clearance times can compress margins; mitigating actions include hedging policies and standardization of documentation to reduce delays. Overall, delivery services are positioned to contribute meaningfully to both top-line expansion and margin consistency as execution focuses on throughput, cost per shipment, and service-level adherence.

Most Promising Segment: Service Fees

Service fees, last quarter’s $103.46 million contributor, represent a structurally scalable revenue stream that benefits from merchant adoption and higher take rates on processed volumes. The segment typically reflects the monetization of platform capabilities—checkout localization, tax and duty calculation, compliance handling, returns orchestration, and post-purchase experience—that add value without materially increasing fulfillment costs, thereby supporting margin enhancement. The prior quarter’s consolidated performance showed positive operating leverage, with EBIT growth significantly outpacing revenue growth, suggesting that service-fee monetization is improving alongside platform usage intensity. This quarter’s projected adjusted EPS of $0.32, paired with the sharp year-over-year EPS swing, implies pull-through to net income from improved gross profit capture on service offerings, though the absolute EPS change is also benefitting from a low base. As merchants deepen their integration, incremental features such as localized payment methods and tax automation can raise effective take rate, while better conversion funnels bolster GMV and fee revenue. The resilience of fee-based income is also supported by lower sensitivity to freight costs, making it an important buffer when delivery expense volatility arises; the balance of fee versus delivery mix can help stabilize gross margins. Focus this quarter will be on sustained fee take rates, retention metrics, and upsell activity across existing merchants, which together should underpin revenue quality and visibility. If fee growth is maintained near the trajectory implied by overall revenue expansion of 30.70% year-over-year, this segment could be a key driver of EBIT normalization and net margin progression.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s near-term performance is likely to be driven by the degree to which revenue, EPS, and EBIT come in at or above the stated estimates and whether gross margin exhibits a stable or improving pattern relative to last quarter’s 45.13%. Visibility on profitability progression is central, with investors looking for confirmation that higher volumes translate into improved net profit margin beyond last quarter’s 5.97%, particularly through better operational efficiency and controlled costs. Any commentary around conversion improvements, merchant additions, or expanded capability sets that enhance service-fee capture could reinforce the EPS outlook, which currently implies a substantial year-over-year increase. On the delivery side, signals that carrier negotiations, geographic mix, and exception-rate reductions are tracking favorably would provide confidence that unit logistics cost is moving down the curve and margins can hold or expand. Cash flow cadence and working capital discipline—especially inventory risk mitigation where applicable and receivables management—will form the backdrop to sustainability of EBIT, which is expected to surge year-over-year. FX exposure and cross-border settlement timing can modulate reported margins; risk controls such as hedging and standardized cross-border workflows help reduce volatility, and investors will parse disclosures for evidence of robust execution. The balance between fee-based and delivery-based revenue will be watched as a determinant of margin resilience; higher fee mix often underpins stronger gross profit margin even when logistics costs fluctuate. Lastly, forward-looking comments about merchant pipeline, seasonal promotions, and any enhancements to returns management or localized checkout can influence narrative around conversion rates, directly shaping sentiment into and beyond the print.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views currently dominate the limited set of observable opinions, with a notable reiteration of a Buy rating from Benchmark Co. accompanied by a price target of $52.00. The thrust of the bullish perspective is that Global-E Online Ltd. is entering the quarter with strengthening operating leverage, evidenced by last quarter’s EBIT outperformance relative to estimates and robust year-over-year momentum in revenue and EPS. Proponents expect the combination of delivery-scale efficiencies and fee-based monetization to support both the $327.94 million revenue projection and the $0.32 adjusted EPS outlook, while the forecast EBIT of $57.57 million points to improving profitability conversion on incremental sales. The bullish case emphasizes the importance of durability in take rates and the incremental contribution of platform features that minimize friction in cross-border transactions, resulting in consistent margin capture even as shipment volumes expand. Supporters also highlight that net profit margin improved to 5.97% last quarter while GAAP net profit climbed to $13.18 million, reflecting operational progress that can carry through this quarter if cost controls remain intact and service levels hold. In their view, risk management around FX and delivery exceptions has improved sufficiently to limit downside surprises, and fee-led growth provides a buffer against variable logistics costs. The majority stance anticipates that the revenue mix of delivery services and service fees will continue to support gross profit stability and EBIT scaling, helping the company meet or exceed current forecasts. With bullish sentiment concentrated around execution quality, margin scalability, and an expanding merchant base, the prevailing expectation is for a constructive print that validates revenue growth of 30.70% year-over-year and signals a pathway to sustained EPS and EBIT normalization.