**Gold Market Trend Analysis:**
On September 23rd, gold market fundamental analysis: Following Monday's (September 22nd) brief consolidation during Asian morning trading, spot gold continued Friday's 1.12% upward momentum. Gold prices surged rapidly at midday, gaining $20 to reach a high of $2,719.72, breaking historical records near the $2,726 level. Global financial markets are preparing for a wave of policy speeches as the Federal Reserve's blackout period ends, with FOMC voting members' statements becoming the market's core focus. Gold is expected to strengthen its upward logic as Fed members elaborate on their rationale for interest rate cuts. This week's market focus will be on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. If this data shows slowing price growth, it will further reinforce expectations for additional rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, Powell will deliver an economic outlook speech on Tuesday, potentially impacting market sentiment again. Market surveys indicate traders currently expect nearly two more rate cuts this year.
**Gold Technical Analysis:** Gold experienced high-level volatility last week with overall roller-coaster movements. Monday and Tuesday saw upward spikes, Wednesday and Thursday brought declines, while Friday witnessed strong gains after stabilizing above $2,630, closing with a large bullish candlestick that ended the two-day losing streak. Weekly charts successfully recorded five consecutive positive closes. Data from the world's largest gold ETF shows holdings increased by over 18 tons, setting a September record, indicating bullish sentiment toward gold. With Fed rate cut expectations recently materialized, markets are beginning to envision the start of a Fed easing cycle, providing medium to long-term support for gold. Middle East tensions persist while the Russia-Ukraine situation shows signs of escalation, all providing strong support for gold prices.
From a technical perspective, daily charts show movement above the 5 and 10-day moving averages, with candlesticks closing above the averages, disrupting the previous consecutive negative closes and temporarily displaying strength. If gold continues its weekly rally, it may break above the previous high of $2,710, with further gains to $2,780 not being problematic. However, attention should be paid to one detail: 4-hour Bollinger Bands have opened upward but haven't extended yet, making a direct one-sided rally on Monday unlikely. Therefore, even with initial weekly bullish outlook, one shouldn't be overly optimistic about its strength, requiring confirmation of adjustment before establishing trend positions.
For tonight's outlook, with today's Asian and European sessions showing continued upward momentum, U.S. trading typically sees secondary rallies. Any pullbacks during or around U.S. trading should be treated as false bearish signals, with continued upward movement expected after stabilization. The first support level is very close at $2,712, representing a 38.2% retracement level. The second support is the 5-day moving average at $2,708, coinciding with the only European session pullback low. The previous $2,707 level also forms a top-bottom position and represents a 50% retracement of daily gains. As a strong squeeze-driven rally, the 38.2% level may provide sufficient support. Therefore, tonight's secondary upward extension is unlikely to breach the $2,700 level. Watch for stabilization above $2,712 and $2,708 for continued bullish momentum, targeting resistance levels at $2,734 and $2,746. Overall, today's short-term gold trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips with selling on rallies as secondary approach. Upper short-term resistance focuses on $2,760-$2,770, while lower short-term support centers on $2,730-$2,720.
**Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:**
**Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis:** Oil price movements are influenced by both geopolitical risks and supply expectations. In Monday's early trading, Brent crude futures rose 0.42% to $66.96 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures gained 0.32% to $62.88 per barrel. Regarding European developments, Poland and NATO allies deployed fighter jets in response to Russian airstrikes and airspace violations. Estonia and Germany also reported Russian military aircraft entering their airspace, with the UN Security Council scheduled to meet Monday to discuss these incidents. Market participants believe geopolitical tensions pose direct risks to European energy security. In the Middle East, four Western nations' recognition of Palestinian statehood has triggered strong Israeli reactions, further complicating the already sensitive energy-producing region and boosting oil's safe-haven buying. However, the oil market's other side shows increased supply and demand concerns. Market surveys indicate recent oil price pressure stems from potential supply increases from the U.S., OPEC+, and Russia to compensate for declining oil revenues.
**Crude Oil Technical Analysis:** From daily chart analysis, following consecutive negative closes, K-lines have formed a narrow-range bottom, with oil prices repeatedly crossing through moving average systems, indicating medium-term objective sideways trend patterns. Monday saw oil prices briefly break below range support without forming continuous, forceful downward trends. Medium-term crude oil movements are expected to maintain weak sideways consolidation patterns. Short-term (1H) movements broke below $62.30 support, continuing downward oscillation to new lows. Moving average systems show bearish alignment, suppressing oil price rebounds with short-term objective trends pointing downward. MACD indicators formed golden crosses below the zero line, with bearish momentum still dominant. Early trading saw oil prices in narrow secondary consolidation at low levels, with daily crude oil movements expected to continue downward, creating new lows. Overall, today's crude oil trading strategy suggests focusing on selling on rallies with buying on dips as secondary approach. Upper short-term resistance focuses on $63.5-$64.5, while lower short-term support centers on $61.0-$60.0.