Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic stated on Friday that an annual economic growth rate of 2.2% represents a "fairly robust figure," a level significant enough to raise concerns about persistently high inflation. He suggested the Fed may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy to cool the economy.
Bostic, speaking at an economic event in Birmingham, Alabama, remarked, "Our economy has maintained remarkable resilience." He anticipates the economic growth rate will accelerate to 2.4% this year, surpassing what he views as the economy's potential growth level.
He pointed out that inflation currently remains around 3%, which is still "a considerable distance" from the 2% inflation target. Therefore, "a strong economy means we must be vigilant about its impact on prices."
Based on this assessment, Bostic believes the Fed "should proceed cautiously," keeping interest rates sufficiently high to cool the economy and suppress inflation. He noted that there has been little progress in reducing inflation in recent months.
Bostic is set to step down this month, having participated in his final Fed policy meeting in January. However, his comments highlight a new debate emerging within the Fed: whether the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence technology is altering the economy's potential growth rate and what implications this has for inflation.
The latest data released on Friday showed that although economic growth slowed to 1.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, falling short of expectations, the full-year growth still reached 2.2%. Bostic described this performance as particularly impressive, considering "the various shocks we have experienced, disruptions in trade relations, and uncertainty regarding policy direction."
This growth rate also exceeds Bostic's estimate of the annual potential economic growth rate, which is around 1.8%—a figure that also aligns with the median long-term economic growth forecast among Fed officials.
Bostic indicated that growth significantly outpacing its potential level is likely to push inflation higher, which supports the argument for not cutting interest rates.
In contrast, Kevin Walsh, a nominee for a new position as a Fed governor, has argued that an impending surge in productivity will enable the economy to grow at a faster pace without triggering inflation.