Zhiyuan Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Complex Situations Lead to Caution Among Major Players, CHALIECO (02068) Surges Unexpectedly

Stock News
Oct 22

[Market Analysis] The Hong Kong stock market struggled towards the end of trading yesterday, confirming market concerns, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.94%. Today, numerous media outlets focused on a joint statement by leaders from the UK, Germany, and France, which unanimously supported the pursuit of a fair and lasting peace. They agreed with U.S. President Trump’s proposal for an immediate ceasefire and to use the current contact line as a starting point for negotiations. The statement emphasized that they would continue to strengthen sanctions and pressures on the Russian economy and defense industry. It was also revealed that multiple countries are studying the use of frozen Russian sovereign assets to provide necessary financial resources to Ukraine. Speculation around a potential ceasefire led to a decline in gold prices. On the evening of October 21, gold and silver prices plummeted, with spot gold falling 6.3%, the largest single-day drop since April 2013. Spot silver recorded a drop of 8.7%, marking its largest decline since 2021. With Europe unable to take a seat at the table, merely voicing opinions while continuing sanctions and discussing utilization of Russian assets, one must question how Russia could agree to a ceasefire. The root cause of the gold drop lies in its previous increase, leading to a liquidation by short sellers. Following significant declines, prices will naturally recover. At this moment, Laopuqin Gold (06181) is conducting a discounted placement, intending to place 3.7118 million new H shares at a price of HKD 732.49 per share, a discount of approximately 4.5% from the previous closing price of HKD 767, with net proceeds amounting to HKD 2.707 billion. The timing is unfortunate, as the stock has dropped more than 8%. Regarding Russia-U.S. talks, both sides have failed to reach an agreement, and Russia is unlikely to consent to a ceasefire based on the current contact line due to its advantageous position, seeking not to provide Ukraine any respite. Thus, the suggestion of halting discussions yesterday reflected this sentiment. Trump understands this; he believes the meeting is pointless and therefore doesn’t wish to waste time. However, he has not definitively ruled out a decision regarding the meeting, which will be made in the coming days. Furthermore, Trump has stated his expectation of reaching a trade agreement between China and the U.S. at the upcoming APEC summit next week, though he noted that the two heads of state may not meet. What results could be achieved without a meeting? Merely verbal exchanges to stabilize the stock market. Currently, Trump has little to show for his efforts, as he plans to visit Japan next week for potential gains while also discussing deployments in the Asia-Pacific region. In another front, North Korea launched multiple short-range ballistic missiles, which serves as a warning. Japan’s new Prime Minister, 高市早苗 (Kishida Fumio), has reportedly prepared large-scale economic stimulus measures, but overcoming Trump remains challenging. It's notable that 石破茂 (Shinzo Abe) resigned due to the pressures of balancing competing interests. This highlights just how chaotic the external circumstances are, leading to a significant contraction in market activity recently, as major funds remain cautious. We will see if tomorrow's critical meetings yield favorable outcomes. A slightly positive trend is being observed in deep earth economy stocks, with 山东墨龙 (00568), 中石化油服 (01033), and 中海油田服务 (02883) rising more than 4%. Reports indicate that global mining giant Rio Tinto is exploring asset exchange cooperation with 中国铝业集团有限公司 (the parent company of CHALIECO). This specifically involves key mineral assets such as the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea and the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia. CHALIECO (02068) intends to hold a board meeting on October 28 to approve its third-quarter performance, leading to a surge of over 30% today. Additionally, the U.S.-based Atlantic Council recently published a report detailing the "gallium shortage" the U.S. is facing after China announced export controls on metals, including gallium. It highlighted America's hopes to recover gallium already circulating within its industrial system through “waste-to-gallium” methods. Gallium is a byproduct of alumina refining, and 中国铝业 (02600), as China's largest aluminum producer, has strategic value in gallium extraction technology and resource reserves. Today, it rose more than 2%. The market appears to be preemptively betting on a U.S. interest rate cut, with related light manufacturing products such as sofas, textiles, apparel, footwear, and luggage highly sensitive to interest rate shifts. Stocks like 信丰控股 (01999), 晶苑国际 (02232), 申洲国际 (02313), 九兴控股 (01836), and 新秀丽 (01910) performed strongly. The aviation sector's logic, which was supplemented yesterday, seems to have gained recognition in the market, with the mentioned leader, 中国东方航空 (00670), surging over 4% again. According to recent data from Japan's National Institute for Health Crisis Management, over 9,000 flu cases were reported across more than 3,800 designated healthcare institutions from October 6 to 12, with weekly new cases rising for eight consecutive weeks. Related pharmaceutical stocks have exhibited volatility; 石四药集团 (02005) disclosed that it repurchased 2.1 million shares at a cost of HKD 608.13 million on October 21, with repurchase prices between HKD 2.88 and 2.92 per share. This stock rose over 5%, while 国药控股 (01099) increased more than 4%. Cook robots are poised to become the first high-frequency scenario in restaurant automation, as they can reduce costs and improve efficiency. The current price of mainstream commercial cook robots is about HKD 50,000 per unit, with potential price drops as production scales up and technology matures. One cooking robot can replace 2-3 chefs (whose monthly salary ranges from HKD 8,000 to 15,000), while also optimizing kitchen space and reducing rent costs. Overall, they can enhance meal output efficiency by over 40% and lower labor costs by 40%, while decreasing kitchen footprint by 30%. 小菜园 (00999) operates over 660 stores and plans to invest around HKD 100 million to procure 2,000 cooking robots (priced at approximately HKD 50,000 each). The stock rose more than 3%. 黑芝麻智能 (02533) announced on October 21 that it granted a total of 659,000 incentive shares to 18 recipients based on the post-initial public offering share plan. With adequate stimulation, there is hope for performance boost, and today the stock rose nearly 5%. 信达生物 (01801) announced a global strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical, but the share price opened high before steadily declining, closing down nearly 2%. Although 信达生物 received a $1.2 billion upfront payment (including a $100 million strategic equity investment), the potential for $10.2 billion in milestone payments is contingent on stringent clinical, regulatory, and sales targets. Moreover, both parties will share profits in the U.S. market at a 40/60 profit loss-sharing model, with 信达 covering 40% of development costs. If phase III clinical trials fail or sales fall short of expectations, 信达 may face losses. [Sector Focus] On October 22, the Ministry of Commerce issued related questionnaires regarding the anti-dumping investigation of relevant analog chips. On September 13, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China published announcement No. 27, deciding to initiate an anti-dumping investigation into the relevant analog chips originating from the United States. Preliminary evidence indicates that from 2022 to 2024, the number of analog chips exported from the U.S. to China significantly increased, while prices drastically decreased. During these three years, cumulative imports of these products grew by 37%, while import prices fell by 52%. The significant price drop severely squeezed the survival space for domestic enterprises, leading to profit margins for domestic analog chip companies dropping below 5%, forcing some to cut back on research and development investments. This low-price competition strategy has clearly stunted the development of China’s domestic analog chip industry. If determined to be dumping, this would benefit domestic chipmakers. Key players include 中芯国际 (00981), 华虹半导体 (01347), and 上海复旦 (01385). [Stock Opportunities] FIRST TRACTOR (00038): Continually expanding overseas business, with strong export performance for tractors. In September 2025, the export value of agricultural machinery from China was 450.425 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 30.7%; the cumulative export value from January to September was 5.044223 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 40.1%. Among these, 15,556 tractors were exported in September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.2%. In the company's mid-year results, total operating revenue was 6.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.26%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 769 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.06%. Commentary: The company has experienced declines in revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company due to weak market demand, yet gross profit margins have stabilized. The export growth of tractors is noteworthy; in the first half of 2025, FIRST TRACTOR sold a total of 42,800 tractors, with 5,445 sold overseas, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.37%. Notably, the company has established five major sales regions: Central Asia, Southeast Asia, America, Central and Eastern Europe, and Africa. In the first half of 2025, both the African and Central and Eastern European markets performed excellently, with sales growth exceeding 50%. By diversifying its overseas market presence, the company has reduced its reliance on any single market. Benefiting from the upgrading demand for agricultural mechanization, the large-wheeled tractor market has outperformed that of medium-wheeled tractors. Additionally, under the support of the "优机优补" policy, the company has achieved the first large-scale production and commercialization of power-shift tractors this year. In terms of capacity, the intelligent multi-use high-horsepower tractor capability enhancement project is progressing smoothly, providing strong support for meeting the market demand for high-end agricultural machinery. In the first half of this year, the company's tractor export growth rate surpassed that of the entire domestic industry, showing optimism about the company's overseas business expansion.

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