Friday's data revealed a surprise contraction of 23,000 jobs in the U.S. economy for July, leading to a decline in Treasury yields. This fresh data has reignited concerns about the health of the labor market while simultaneously diminishing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates further in the near term.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a key benchmark for mortgage, auto, and credit card debt, fell by more than 1 basis point to 4.654%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which more closely reflects expectations for the Fed's short-term policy rate, dropped over 4 basis points to 4.204%, its lowest level since July 17. The 30-year Treasury bond yield edged down less than 1 basis point to 5.206%. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point, and yields move inversely to prices.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 for the month. This was a sharp miss compared to the consensus estimate of an 83,000 increase, as surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while Wall Street had anticipated it would hold steady at 4.2%. The labor force participation rate declined to 61.4% from 61.5% in June, marking its lowest point in over five years.
Brent Wilsey, Chief Investment Officer at Wilsey Asset Management, commented, "The employment report released Friday was not only far weaker than expected but also showed the economy lost jobs in July. Given that inflation remains stubbornly high and sticky, this puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position." The report complicates the Fed's policy outlook, as policymakers remain divided on the direction of interest rates. After a sluggish start to 2025, the labor market showed signs of improvement in the spring, yet inflation remains well above the central bank's 2% target. Following the release of the jobs data, traders scaled back expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's next policy meeting in September. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike next month fell to 44%, while the probability of a move before October stands near 59%.