Caitong Securities issued a research report projecting Tencent Holdings' (00700) Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders to grow by 17.0%, 11.9%, and 10.3% year-on-year in 2025–2027, reaching RMB 260.6 billion, RMB 291.5 billion, and RMB 321.5 billion, respectively. The current share price implies a forward P/E ratio of 21.0x, 18.8x, and 17.0x for 2025–2027. The firm reiterated an "Overweight" rating.
Key takeaways from Caitong Securities:
**Earnings Beat Expectations, Higher Sales & R&D Expense Ratios** In 3Q25, Tencent reported revenue of RMB 192.9 billion (+15.4% YoY, 2.15% above consensus), with a gross margin of 56.4% (0.19 ppts above consensus). Sales and R&D expense ratios stood at 5.9% (0.6 ppts above consensus) and 11.8% (0.9 ppts above consensus), respectively. However, profits from associates/joint ventures surged to RMB 7.85 billion (62.3% above consensus), driving Non-IFRS net profit to RMB 70.55 billion (+18.0% YoY, 6.9% above consensus).
**Overseas Gaming Revenue Up Over 40%, Strong Performance in Evergreen Titles** Gaming revenue reached RMB 63.6 billion (+22.8% YoY, 5.2% above consensus), with domestic market revenue at RMB 42.8 billion (+14.8% YoY, 1.3% above consensus), driven by titles like *Delta Force*, *Peacekeeper Elite*, and *Honor of Kings*. International gaming revenue rose 43.4% YoY to RMB 20.8 billion (14.8% above consensus), fueled by *Clash Royale*, contributions from acquired studios, and strong sales of the console game *Dying Light: Be the Zombie*.
**Ad Revenue & Gross Margin Exceed Expectations; FinTech & Business Services Margin Lags** Ad revenue grew 20.8% YoY to RMB 36.24 billion (1.8% above consensus), supported by increased ad spending across key sectors, higher user engagement, improved ad load rates, and AI-driven targeting boosting eCPM. The segment’s gross margin was 56.7% (0.5 ppts above consensus). However, FinTech & Business Services gross margin came in at 50.2% (1.4 ppts below consensus).
**Risk Factors:** Tighter regulatory oversight in gaming, slower ad revenue growth due to weak macroeconomic recovery, intensifying competition, and uncertainties in investment returns.