Key Market Factors: On November 17, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve weighed on market sentiment. The turning point in the gold market last week was undoubtedly the series of "hawkish" remarks from Fed officials, which struck down investors' expectations of monetary easing. The previously high anticipation of a December rate cut cooled significantly, with market expectations dropping from over 60% at the start of the week to below 46%.

The aftermath of the government shutdown lingers. The longest U.S. government shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, finally ended last Thursday. However, it left a significant gap in economic data, forcing the Fed and market traders into a "blind flight" scenario, accelerating gold sell-offs by investors over the weekend.

Geopolitical Developments: - Former U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. would conduct nuclear tests like other nations but refused to disclose whether the plans included detonating warheads. Reports suggest U.S. Department of Energy officials plan to dissuade such actions. - The EU is considering increasing defense and border security budgets, potentially reaching €190 billion by 2026. - China's Taiwan Affairs Office strongly opposes U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, urging the U.S. to handle Taiwan-related issues with extreme caution. - China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism advises Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan recently and urges those already in Japan to stay vigilant about local security conditions.

Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, gold's sharp decline on Friday breached the 5-day moving average, with the expected support near the 10- and 20-day moving averages around 4,060 failing to hold. The intensity of the drop was unexpected. This week, resistance near the 5-day moving average at 4,130–4,135 will be key. If gold remains under pressure, further declines are likely. Support levels to watch are near the 10- and 20-day moving averages at 4,070 and 4,050. A sustained break below these levels would confirm a stronger bearish trend. However, the psychological 4,000 level may see some consolidation, and whether it breaks depends on further negative catalysts.

Hourly Chart Analysis: After Friday's steep decline, gold rebounded from around 4,030 but faced resistance near 4,110, leaving a significant gap between 4,110 and 4,150. If this gap remains unfilled, it signals strong bearish momentum, potentially leading to further declines. A partial rebound without breaking above the upper gap boundary would still indicate weak corrective movement. Key support levels this week remain at 4,070 and 4,050, aligning with the 10- and 20-day moving averages. A break below these levels would shift focus to the 4,000 mark.

Trading Strategy: At the start of the week, the primary strategy for gold is short-selling, given the bearish momentum. Only clear positive catalysts should prompt long positions. Short-selling near 4,105–4,110 is advisable, with a stop-loss above 4,115 and targets at 4,080–4,075 for partial profit-taking. The remaining positions can aim for 4,050. If gold stabilizes above 4,110, resistance near 4,145–4,150 should be tested before considering another short position with a stop-loss above 4,160 and targets at 4,120–4,110.

Disclaimer: The content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should proceed at their own risk.