Smart glasses are evolving from a technological concept into a consumer electronics category with considerable commercial prospects.

According to a latest research report from Citibank on September 23rd, driven by AI functionalities, Meta Platforms' smart glasses products are approaching a critical commercialization phase and are expected to reach a mainstream market adoption "inflection point" in 2026. The report suggests that Meta has established a multi-year first-mover advantage in this emerging field, potentially opening up a new growth path beyond traditional advertising business.

The report notes that market sentiment toward Meta's AI glasses strategy is becoming increasingly optimistic. This assessment is based on discussions with former Meta AR/VR senior product management director Erick Tseng, as well as production capacity expansion plans from Meta's partner EssilorLuxottica. It was disclosed that EssilorLuxottica is preparing to increase annual production capacity for Meta glasses to 10 million units by the end of 2026 to meet anticipated demand growth.

The report draws parallels between the potential adoption curve of smart glasses and the explosive growth of smartwatches and wireless earphones, suggesting they could replicate similar success trajectories in the coming years. Data shows that Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses sales tripled in the first half of 2025.

"We believe that as super intelligence drives broader transformation of internet experiences, smart glasses, as a natural extension of AI, we are currently in the second wave of their adoption," analysts wrote in the report.

**Three-Phase Roadmap: AI Experience as Current Focus**

According to Erick Tseng's perspective, smart glasses adoption will go through three core phases or waves. The report believes the market is currently in the second phase.

The first phase is "hands-free moments," such as taking photos and recording videos through voice commands. The report suggests this functionality has been widely adopted since the launch of Ray-Ban Meta glasses in September 2023.

The second phase is "AI-powered experiences," which is the core of making glasses "smart." While functionality powered by the Llama large language model is already available, the report believes exploration of providing core AI use cases to consumers through glasses is still in its early stages. This highlights the importance of deep integration between hardware and foundational models like Llama.

The third phase is "digital overlay," which has just begun. The Meta Ray-Ban Display glasses launched on September 30th, and the potential for building AI interactive experiences with heads-up display functionality on lenses, signals the arrival of this phase. The report states that with the release of second-generation smart glasses, Meta has "firmly entered the second phase," which could last for several years.

**Adoption Timeline: Benchmarking Against Watches and Earphones, but Price is Key**

The Citibank report agrees with Erick Tseng's assessment that smart glasses are approximately 12 to 24 months away from mainstream adoption. Their adoption path is considered similar to Apple's Apple Watch and AirPods.

Historical data shows that both smartwatches and wireless earphones experienced significant growth in their second to fifth years after launch. According to IDC data, global smartwatch shipments had a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% from 2014 to 2022, while wireless earphones achieved an even higher CAGR of 170% from 2016 to 2022.

Although smart glasses have the potential to replace smartphones in the long term, near-term adoption still faces challenges. Erick Tseng points out that product pricing may need to be further reduced to accelerate adoption.

Market demand is heating up. A Citibank consumer survey shows that approximately 12% of respondents plan to purchase Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, while current ownership is around 5%.

Based on this, analyst Veronika Dubajova predicts that by 2030, smart glasses will contribute approximately 3.7 billion euros in revenue to EssilorLuxottica, representing about 10% of the group's total sales, compared to an expected revenue of less than 300 million euros in 2024.

**Hardware Challenges and Competitive Landscape: Meta's First-Mover Advantage**

The report identifies three major hardware limitations that could affect widespread smart glasses adoption: appearance, battery life, and weight. Erick Tseng mentioned that 50 grams might be the maximum weight users can tolerate.

Although the latest second-generation Ray-Ban Meta glasses have doubled battery life compared to previous models, reaching approximately 6-8 hours, the report believes that complete augmented reality (AR) experiences may require all-day battery capability. With more AI features being added, hardware may still appear somewhat bulky in the short term.

Regarding the competitive landscape, the report believes Meta is "years ahead of competitors" and is defining this category. However, competition is intensifying:

**Google**: Android XR glasses in partnership with Gentle Monster, Warby Parker and others are expected to launch later this year or next year.

**Snap**: Plans to launch lighter, more immersive glasses in 2026.

**Apple**: Has not announced any smart glasses development plans yet.