Abstract
Flywire Corp. will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 24, 2026 Post Market, and this preview distills consensus expectations, segment dynamics, margin trajectories, and prevailing institutional opinions ahead of the print.Market Forecast
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Flywire Corp. is forecast to generate revenue of $146.41 million, implying 23.12% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS estimated at -$0.01 and EBIT projected at -$0.88 million, reflecting an anticipated year-over-year contraction of 89.86% for EPS and 52.05% for EBIT. Guidance on gross profit margin and net profit margin for the current quarter is not provided in the available forecast data, and consensus margin expectations vary; investors will center on how revenue scaling translates into operating leverage and bottom-line progression on the day.The main business is expected to continue being supported by transaction-driven volumes and software-enabled monetization, with the recent quarter’s mix reinforcing an outlook where processing activity remains the predominant revenue engine. The most promising segment in terms of incremental contribution is platform and usage fees, which delivered $32.95 million last quarter and, based on current-quarter growth expectations for total revenue of 23.12% year-over-year, appears set to underpin stability in recurring monetization as Flywire navigates seasonal effects and spending discipline.
Last Quarter Review
Flywire Corp.’s third quarter of 2025 delivered revenue of $200.14 million, a gross profit margin of 63.87%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $29.63 million, a net profit margin of 14.81%, and adjusted EPS of $0.23, with total revenue expanding 27.63% year-over-year and adjusted EPS declining 23.33% year-over-year. A key financial highlight was EBIT of $32.25 million, up 59.12% year-over-year, while net profit rose sharply on a sequential basis, with quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 346.78%, spotlighting operating momentum into the back half of fiscal 2025.Main business highlights showed transaction fees contributing $167.19 million and platform and usage fees contributing $32.95 million; the mix supported total revenue growth of 27.63% year-over-year while reinforcing the predominant role of transaction-based volumes in the quarterly performance.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main Business: Transaction Fees
Transaction fees remain the core revenue engine, and the model-implied fourth-quarter trajectory suggests durable year-over-year expansion even as the quarter is expected to be down sequentially from the third quarter’s seasonal peak. The forecast revenue of $146.41 million, up 23.12% year-over-year, points to continued strength around monetized payment flows and cross-border activity captured by Flywire’s platform. In evaluating the impact on profitability, the crucial consideration will be the spread between revenue growth and the expense base; the anticipated negative EBIT and negative adjusted EPS underscore a period of investment and costs normalizing through the end of the fiscal year, which can dilute operating leverage despite healthy top-line growth. Investors will focus on how cost controls, efficiency initiatives, and unit economics across transaction processing translate into gross margin resilience and whether incremental revenue over the quarter can stabilize the EBIT line closer to breakeven.Sequential patterns are worth noting; last quarter’s revenue at $200.14 million benefited from a favorable mix and operating scale, while the fourth quarter’s forecasts reflect a normalizing cadence that often falls off relative to the third quarter. The company’s ability to mitigate typical quarter-to-quarter variability with optimized pricing and product bundling around transaction flows will be central to defending margin quality. Another pivotal element is the contribution of larger accounts and multi-product engagements; where adoption increases across software workflows tied to payments, the transaction fee line can benefit from better embedded take rates without materially increasing underlying unit costs, which feeds operating leverage. If management’s commentary provides clarity on the durability of those account expansions through early fiscal 2026, the market may tolerate near-term earnings softness given the implied path to longer-term monetization uplift.
Most Promising Business: Platform and Usage Fees
Platform and usage fees delivered $32.95 million last quarter and stand out as an increasingly valuable component of the revenue profile, given the stability they often provide relative to throughput-driven transaction fees. With total revenue forecast to grow 23.12% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, this segment’s role in smoothing seasonality is important for margin predictability. If platform and usage fees maintain or expand as a proportion of revenue, gross margin can remain supported even when the transaction line experiences quarter-to-quarter adjustments driven by volumes or mix, because software-linked revenue typically carries higher margins and more consistent renewal characteristics.In the current quarter, the company’s ability to cross-sell platform modules and deepen usage across existing clients can be a meaningful contributor to both revenue quality and future earnings power. A stronger platform footprint often correlates with lower customer churn and longer-term contracts, which helps in guiding forward-looking revenue visibility and reduces reliance on near-term volumes to meet targets. Market participants will also watch for any signals on pricing improvements for software usage, as small price moves can produce outsized effects on the margin line when paired with stable subscription-like revenue. Even in a quarter where overall operating income is forecast to be negative, traction within platform and usage fees can frame the longer-term lever for margin expansion once investment levels normalize.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The primary stock price driver will be whether Flywire Corp. can deliver the forecast top-line growth while demonstrating a pathway to improving profitability, given the current-quarter estimates of -$0.01 adjusted EPS and -$0.88 million EBIT. The market will parse gross margin trends relative to last quarter’s 63.87% level, looking for signs that software monetization and mix can offset lower sequential transaction volumes; confirmation of margin resilience, even without formal guidance, would be viewed constructively. Equally important is management’s commentary on expense discipline and investment cadence into fiscal 2026—the nearer the company appears to a sustained positive EBIT inflection, the more investors will be inclined to underwrite valuation support against the revenue growth profile.Another factor will be recurring revenue momentum implied by platform and usage fees, which were $32.95 million last quarter; updates that indicate stronger adoption, retention, or multi-product expansion could improve the earnings outlook beyond the current quarter. The balance between growth investments and cost normalization is critical; if operating efficiency initiatives are highlighted and aligned to productivity gains, the market may recalibrate its expectations for the timing of EPS improvement even with a negative EPS forecast this quarter. Lastly, clarity around full-year pacing and early fiscal 2026 run-rate indicators, even in qualitative form, could influence the read-through from this quarter’s results to the upcoming year, affecting sentiment on whether to discount temporary earnings softness in favor of sustained revenue growth.
Analyst Opinions
Among the institutional perspectives collected from January 1, 2026 to February 17, 2026 and within the six-month window preceding the report date, the views are overwhelmingly bullish, resulting in a 100% bullish ratio and 0% bearish ratio in our sample. Seaport Global Securities upgraded Flywire Corp. to Buy on January 14, 2026 and set a price target of $18, highlighting confidence in the company’s ability to compound revenue through software-enabled payments and the benefits of strategic initiatives. B. Riley raised its price target to $20 on January 9, 2026, maintaining a Buy rating and signaling constructive expectations for year-over-year growth momentum, operating leverage potential, and valuation upside contingent on execution. William Blair reiterated a Buy rating on November 5, 2025, framing Flywire as positioned to scale through strategic expansion and acquisition-driven gains; while the precise contributions and timing may vary, the core thesis supports continued growth with an emphasis on platform breadth. Truist Financial maintained a Buy rating in early fourth-quarter coverage and referenced a share price of $13.81 at the time, underscoring a favorable stance as the firm looked ahead to the late-February release.Synthesizing these bullish views with the current-quarter forecasts, the prevailing institutional narrative emphasizes the durability of high-teens to mid-20% year-over-year revenue growth even as near-term earnings metrics are challenged by investment and seasonal effects. Analysts point to the importance of platform and usage fees in stabilizing margin performance and enhancing revenue quality, which can offset quarter-to-quarter variability in transaction fees. The fourth-quarter estimates—$146.41 million in revenue (23.12% year-over-year growth), -$0.01 adjusted EPS (down 89.86% year-over-year), and -$0.88 million EBIT (down 52.05% year-over-year)—set a cautious bar for profitability; the bullish camp argues that guidance around cost discipline, expansion in platform adoption, and clarity on run-rate revenue into fiscal 2026 can reshape the trajectory for margins in subsequent quarters.
The most consistently cited validation points among the bullish institutions include evidence of resilient gross margin around software and usage monetization, a healthy pipeline for client additions and expansions, and the scale benefits from the accumulated base of large accounts. The market will benchmark these expectations against last quarter’s 63.87% gross margin and 14.81% net profit margin, which—combined with a robust 27.63% year-over-year revenue growth—provide a foundation for believing that margin outcomes can improve once investment intensity tapers. On valuation, the buy-rated research notes generally tie upside cases to revenue compounding and the turning point to sustained positive EBIT and adjusted EPS across the year, rather than the current-quarter print alone; thus, the focus is on signals that Q4’s softer profitability is transitory within a broader growth arc.
In summary, the dominant institutional stance favors Flywire Corp. into the fourth-quarter print, anchored by confidence in year-over-year revenue growth and the stabilizing contribution of platform and usage fees, while accepting near-term earnings softness as a function of investment and seasonality. The upcoming commentary will be crucial in demonstrating how operating efficiency and software monetization can translate into margin improvement through fiscal 2026, which is the pivot point the bullish side is watching to justify targets in the $18 to $20 range and ongoing Buy or Overweight recommendations.