Amundi Asset Management's head of investment research, Monica Defend, stated that the "Iran crisis" further confirms the structural shift she has consistently emphasized: geopolitics has once again become a regular driver of macroeconomic conditions. The global economy is now entering an environment of "order within change," where geopolitical shocks will trigger sector rotation and asset differentiation rather than uniform market movements. The firm believes oil transmits geopolitical risk to the economy and markets. Additionally, Amundi characterizes the current situation as a temporary stagflationary shock, not the beginning of a new oil supercycle. Unless shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, oil prices are unlikely to stabilize above $100 per barrel. Paradoxically, if prices breach the $100 mark, "demand destruction" and recession risks would quickly cap further gains. As long as oil supplies remain unimpeded, this event is at most a source of volatility, not a systemic risk. However, it underscores that geopolitics has become a structural factor influencing investment cycles, likely increasing near-term inflation risks, supporting US dollar strength, and exacerbating divergence across asset classes. Energy price volatility, inflation uncertainty, and regional disparities are once again key drivers of market direction. Amundi noted that oil-importing nations in Asia and emerging markets face challenges from tighter financial conditions and deteriorating external balances. Europe remains sensitive to natural gas price fluctuations due to low storage levels, but the situation is expected to normalize with seasonal changes. In contrast, the United States, benefiting from its status as an energy exporter and safe-haven capital inflows, is relatively less impacted. Regarding specific asset classes: gold is the clearest winner across various scenarios; US assets remain relatively resilient; emerging market assets and oil-importing countries face the greatest pressure; commodity currencies benefit from improved terms of trade; and credit risk remains manageable but is concentrated among lower-quality borrowers.