U.S. stock market indices closed mixed in the previous session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.22% and the S&P 500 edged up 0.05%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, however, gained approximately 1.2%. Over the past week, all three major indices recorded losses, with the Nasdaq seeing a larger decline, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

Most major technology stocks declined. NVIDIA and Apple fell over 2%, while Google, Meta, and Broadcom dropped more than 1%. Investor concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence on traditional industries reinforced a risk-averse mood. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.10%. Among popular U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, JD.com, Alibaba, and Li Auto fell more than 1%. NetEase rose over 2%, and XPeng gained 1.36%. In global asset performance, WTI crude futures settled up 0.08% for the session but fell 1.12% for the week. Brent crude futures settled 0.34% higher on the day but declined 0.41% weekly. Spot gold rose 2.5% to $5,045.70 per ounce, marking a weekly gain of 1.55%. Spot silver increased 2.84% to $77.4269 per ounce, though it finished the week down 0.50%.

Following the market overview, attention turns to two key events from the previous session.

01 U.S. January CPI Report Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the annual U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), unadjusted, fell to 2.4% in January, down from 2.7% previously. This marks the lowest level since May 2025 and was below the market consensus forecast of 2.5%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-over-month, slightly higher than the 0.2% increase in December. This represents one of the larger monthly gains since last August. Annually, core CPI increased by 2.5%, down from 2.6% in December, reaching its lowest level since 2021. Following the CPI release, traders increased their expectations for total interest rate cuts this year, with the projected magnitude rising from 58 basis points to 63 basis points. This implies a 50% probability of three rate cuts by year-end. Market expectations now price in a 30% chance of a rate cut in April and an over 80% probability of a cut in June. Despite cooling inflation, a stabilizing labor market may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates for some time. This moderate CPI report follows stronger-than-expected January non-farm payrolls data released days prior, which showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. These factors are expected to support the Fed's current wait-and-see stance. Lindsay Rosner, Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, noted that with the January CPI data not being as strong as some feared, the path for "normalizing" rate cuts appears clearer. She stated, "This will depend on whether the job market continues to show signs of improvement, as the FOMC is highly sensitive to labor market weakness." Goldman Sachs maintains its expectation for two Fed rate cuts this year, with the next likely in June. PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding described the inflation report as "quite encouraging beneath the surface." She highlighted two positive developments: a genuine slowdown in shelter inflation, which had been stable since the pandemic, and the largely faded impact of tariffs. "As this effect dissipates, the Fed should feel more comfortable cutting rates. A few more cuts this year seem reasonable to us," Wilding added.

02 Meituan Issues Profit Warning! Influenced by a price war in its food delivery segment, acquisition integration costs, and profit expectations, Meituan's stock price has declined 22.5% from its January peak. As of the close on February 13, Meituan's share price stood at HK$82.5, with its market capitalization briefly falling below HK$500 billion during the session.

After market hours on February 13, 2026, Meituan officially issued a profit warning. Based on a preliminary assessment of the Group's latest unaudited consolidated management accounts, the company expects to report a net loss of approximately RMB 23.3 billion to RMB 24.3 billion for the full year 2025. This stands in stark contrast to the net profit of RMB 35.808 billion recorded in 2024, representing a significant reversal of nearly RMB 60 billion in performance.

In its filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Meituan stated that based on the preliminary assessment and information currently available to the Board, it anticipates recording a loss for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to a profit in the 2024 fiscal year. The core reason for this sharp performance downturn stems from a collapse in profits from Meituan's most profitable "Core Local Commerce" segment. This segment reported an operating profit of approximately RMB 52.415 billion in 2024 but is expected to swing to an operating loss of roughly RMB 6.8 billion to RMB 7.0 billion in 2025. The company emphasized that this result follows strategic increases in ecosystem investments amid "unprecedentedly intense industry competition." These investments are targeted simultaneously across three areas: enhancing marketing and price competitiveness for consumers; increasing rider incentives and benefits for the delivery network; and continuing to allocate resources to merchants to improve operational efficiency and coverage. Additionally, Meituan has "further increased investment in its overseas businesses," collectively contributing to the elevated loss pressure. The company judges that, affected by ongoing competition, the loss-making trend is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2026. However, as of the announcement date, the operating condition remains "stable and normal." Meituan also stated it possesses "sufficient cash" to support business development and plans to counter the pressure through advancements in AI and unmanned delivery, business model innovation, and refined operations. Online commentators reacted to the news. One user remarked on the stark contrast between the 2024 profit and the projected 2025 loss, calling it a "real, substantial multi-billion subsidy." Another user questioned who exactly was benefiting from such large subsidies, expressing that they hadn't personally experienced such significant savings. Recently, the Hang Seng Tech Index, which includes companies like Meituan and Alibaba, has shown weakness, declining 6.26% since the beginning of February. China Merchants Securities released a research note suggesting the recent weakness in the Hang Seng Tech Index represents a sharp liquidity shock, while the fundamental outlook and investment thesis for the Hong Kong tech sector remain unchanged. From a liquidity perspective, the peak of the overseas liquidity shock has passed, and "buying the dip" could be an effective strategy. Valuation-wise, the current discount of Hong Kong tech stocks relative to their A-share counterparts is near historical highs, potentially setting the stage for a rebound. Regarding industry trends, the proliferation of large AI models represents steady progress. Lu Zhe, Chief Economist at Soochow Securities, believes the trajectory of the Hang Seng Tech Index in February will likely be influenced by three main factors: macroeconomic data, policy expectations, and corporate earnings validation. Among these, overseas inflation and employment data, which shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, are key to influencing the valuation elasticity of Hong Kong tech stocks. Domestic price and interest rate signals primarily offer clues about "policy space and the pace of recovery." Meanwhile, the upcoming dense earnings season will shift market focus from thematic drivers back to the realization of profits and cash flows.