Abstract

B2Gold Corp. will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, Post Market; this preview synthesizes recent financials, current-quarter consensus forecasts, and January–February 2026 analyst views to frame expectations for revenue, profitability, and segment dynamics.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to a sharp rebound in scale and earnings: revenue is estimated at $1.17 billion, up 134.31% year over year; EBIT is projected at $598.08 million, up 141.21% year over year; and adjusted EPS is forecast at $0.19, up 171.09% year over year. Margin forecasts were not provided in the dataset; the prior quarter’s gross margin of 63.22% and net margin of 2.47% form the baseline from which investors will gauge trajectory.

The main operating platform is expected to remain the Fekola complex, with consensus revenue growth implying heavier throughput or shipments and an uplift in operating leverage, supporting EBIT and per-share earnings. Within the portfolio, the Otjikoto mine stands out as a potential incremental contributor this quarter given its substantial baseline revenue of $110.97 million last quarter and a profile that can amplify margin gains when volumes and grades align; segment year-over-year comparisons were not disclosed in the tool data.

Last Quarter Review

In the last reported quarter, B2Gold Corp. delivered $782.95 million in revenue (up 74.68% year over year), a gross profit margin of 63.22%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $19.31 million with a net profit margin of 2.47%, and adjusted EPS of $0.14 (up 600.00% year over year).

A key highlight was profitability leverage: EBIT reached $332.87 million, rising 189.85% year over year and exceeding the quarter’s consensus by $20.37 million, a 6.52% positive surprise. Operationally, the revenue mix remained anchored by Fekola at $472.58 million (60.36% of the quarter’s total), supplemented by Otjikoto at $110.97 million and Masbate at $54.96 million; segment-level year-over-year data was not available in the tool output.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Fekola contribution and margin sensitivity

The current-quarter revenue estimate implies a material step-up from the last reported period, and the Fekola complex is positioned to remain the core driver given its 60.36% share of last quarter’s revenue at $472.58 million. The expected uplift in EBIT to $598.08 million signals that operating leverage could be favorable if incremental ounces are realized at unit costs that hold near, or improve upon, last quarter’s levels. Because the company’s gross margin in the last report was 63.22%, investors are likely to focus on whether realized pricing and cost control can sustain or expand that baseline as volume scales. Any shift in mine grades, plant throughput, or timing of shipments at Fekola tends to have a noticeable impact on margins and EBIT conversion, so delivery against plan will be central to validating the earnings step-up implied by forecasts.

The translation from revenue growth to per-share profitability is also in focus. With adjusted EPS expected at $0.19, the relationship between top-line momentum and cost structure becomes a differentiator for the quarter. If Fekola continues to support fixed-cost absorption and maintains processing efficiency, a larger share of incremental revenue can translate to earnings, and that is consistent with the forecasted EBIT growth of 141.21% year over year. Conversely, any unplanned downtime or cost variability at the mine could flatten margins, which would test the durability of the EPS estimate and the valuation framework that investors apply to near-term cash flow.

Additionally, the market will watch how revenue recognition aligns with production and sales phasing at the Fekola complex across the quarter. A back-end loaded shipment profile can distort quarter-to-quarter comparisons and influence perceived margin trends; therefore, disclosure on sales volumes and timing will be parsed closely to reconcile revenue with physical flows. Given Fekola’s weight in the mix, clarity on its grade profile and unit costs this quarter will likely set the tone for both realized margin outcomes and the trajectory into the next quarter.

Most promising business: Otjikoto’s incremental earnings power

Otjikoto, at $110.97 million last quarter (14.17% of the mix), presents an opportunity to contribute incremental operating leverage in the current quarter’s setup. When volumes and grades stabilize or improve, the mine’s cost structure can enable a meaningful drop-through to EBIT, which aligns with the overall forecast calling for profit expansion. Because consensus expects a 171.09% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS, even modest incremental performance from Otjikoto can be consequential at the margin, supporting the aggregate conversion from revenue to per-share earnings.

A secondary angle is the interplay between Otjikoto and portfolio-level margins. If Otjikoto operates at unit costs that complement the margin profile established last quarter, it can help offset variability at smaller contributors and add resilience to consolidated gross margin. In the context of a projected $1.17 billion revenue quarter, consistent operational execution at Otjikoto is helpful for smoothing revenue recognition and sustaining the run-rate for consolidated profitability. While segment-specific year-over-year growth rates were not available in the tool data, the base of $110.97 million sets a meaningful yardstick for incremental contributions this quarter.

Investors will also pay attention to how Otjikoto’s performance influences cash generation relative to the prior quarter. EBIT improved sharply last quarter and beat expectations by 6.52%, and the durability of that outperformance partly depends on secondary contributors like Otjikoto maintaining operational steadiness. A clean operational quarter at Otjikoto reduces the dispersion of outcomes around the consolidated earnings estimate and improves confidence in forecast reliability, which can translate into tighter valuation spreads around consensus if delivered.

What is likely to move the stock this quarter

The biggest swing factor near term is the translation of forecasted revenue growth into realized margins and cash flow. Last quarter’s 63.22% gross margin sets a high baseline, and investors will look for confirmation that scale benefits and cost control are intact as revenue is expected to rise to $1.17 billion. If reported gross margin holds near that level while revenue expands as forecast, the implied operating leverage should validate the projected $598.08 million EBIT and $0.19 EPS, strengthening confidence in the earnings framework. If margins compress due to cost inflation or grade variability, even strong top-line delivery could be overshadowed by a weaker drop-through to EPS.

The second key factor is guidance for the coming year. With results scheduled for February 18, 2026, Post Market, and communication indicating that 2026 guidance will accompany the release, the forward-looking production and cost framework can recalibrate both near-term earnings models and multi-quarter valuation assumptions. Upside guidance on production, cost discipline, or capital allocation could give investors confidence that the current-quarter momentum is sustainable. Conversely, a cautious outlook on operating costs, capex pacing, or production cadence would likely temper the bullish read-through from strong current-quarter estimates.

A third variable is how sales phasing and realized pricing reconciled within the quarter. The last quarter exhibited a wide gap between revenue growth and net margin (2.47%) despite a high gross margin, suggesting that below-the-line items, timing effects, or non-operating charges influenced GAAP net profitability (GAAP net income was $19.31 million as quarter-on-quarter net profit change was negative). The market will parse whether any such factors are transient or structural. Consistent reconciliation among revenue, margins, and net income—together with clarity on one-time items—would help bridge the gap between the robust EBIT trajectory and GAAP bottom-line metrics, thereby aligning headline growth with cash generation narratives.

Analyst Opinions

Among definitive views published from January 1, 2026 through February 11, 2026, bearish opinions represent the majority. Bank of America Securities reiterated a Sell rating on B2Gold with a $4.30 price target in January 2026, establishing a cautious stance into the print. Using the quarter’s consensus—revenue of $1.17 billion, EBIT of $598.08 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.19—the bearish camp’s focus is likely to center on execution and the sustainability of margins into the forecast horizon. The prior quarter underscored how non-operating or below-the-line items can compress GAAP net margins despite strong gross margins, and bears will watch whether the gap between operating performance and net income persists. If GAAP net profitability does not track the improvements inferred by EBIT and revenue growth, the Sell case sees downside risk to the equity even if top-line estimates are met.

This perspective also places emphasis on guidance quality and the durability of conversion from revenue to earnings per share. With EBIT expected to rise 141.21% year over year and EPS expected to climb 171.09% year over year, skeptics argue that the bar is high and that any shortfall in margins or an unfavorable mix can quickly dilute per-share results. They will scrutinize whether reported gross margin remains near last quarter’s 63.22% and how operating costs trend against the step-up in revenue, as any deterioration in unit costs would undercut the leverage needed to support $0.19 of EPS. Additionally, given last quarter’s $19.31 million GAAP net income and 2.47% net margin, bears will look for evidence that the company can close the gap between operating strength and bottom-line performance through cleaner below-the-line items and stable effective tax and interest dynamics.

On valuation and price targets, the $4.30 objective from Bank of America conveys a conservative interpretation of risk-reward into and after the quarter. The bearish framework is consistent with assigning less credit to forecasted operating leverage until results confirm stable margins and strong cash conversion. With the stock sensitive to both quarterly delivery and forward guidance, the Sell case anticipates that any mixed signals—such as strong revenue but weaker margins or cautious 2026 guidance—could re-rate the shares toward the lower end of recent trading ranges. In this reading, upside would require not only meeting consensus on revenue and EPS but also providing visibility that gross margins can remain robust while translating to a higher GAAP net margin than last quarter’s 2.47%.

From a modeling standpoint, the bearish majority expects investors to key on three checkpoints in the release. First, whether revenue aligns with the $1.17 billion estimate and whether the sales mix supports consolidated margins. Second, whether EBIT comes in close to $598.08 million and if any one-time items inflate or deflate this figure when bridging to GAAP net income. Third, whether adjusted EPS reaches $0.19 and, importantly, whether management’s 2026 guidance supports multi-quarter sustainability of margins and free-cash-flow generation. Should the company deliver on all three while articulating a clear 2026 operating and capital framework, the bearish stance could be challenged; however, absent such confirmation, the Sell view remains the majority reading of risk into the event window.