Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that according to National Bureau of Statistics data, China's cumulative raw coal production reached 3.165 billion tons from January to August 2025, up 2.8% year-on-year. Affected by capacity inspection documents and stricter safety supervision, production is not expected to be released on a large scale in Q4. Thermal coal and coking coal prices both rebounded quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025. In terms of targets, key recommendations include low-valuation elastic targets such as Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ); optimistic about peak season demand recovery driving sustained thermal coal price rebounds, recommending stable operation, high dividend yield targets such as China Shenhua (601088.SH); additionally, suggesting attention to thermal coal elastic target Jincheng Anthracite Coal Mining Group (601001.SH).

Shenwan Hongyuan's main points are as follows:

**Supply Side: Domestic Raw Coal Production Growth, but Coal Import Volume Declined Year-on-Year**

According to National Bureau of Statistics data, China's cumulative raw coal production reached 3.165 billion tons from January to August 2025, up 2.8% year-on-year. According to General Administration of Customs data, cumulative coal imports reached 350 million tons from January to September 2025, down 11.1% year-on-year. Affected by capacity inspection documents and stricter safety supervision, production is not expected to be released on a large scale in Q4.

**Q3 2025 Thermal Coal and Coking Coal Prices Both Rebounded Quarter-on-Quarter**

According to China Coal Market Net data, the average spot price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at ports in Q3 2025 was approximately 673 yuan/ton, down about 20.66% compared to Q3 2024's 848 yuan/ton, and up about 6.75% compared to Q2 2025's 630 yuan/ton. The average price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port warehouse in Q3 2025 was 1,564 yuan/ton, down 17.23% year-on-year compared to Q3 2024, and up 19.09% quarter-on-quarter compared to Q2 2025.

**Expected Q3 2025 Performance of Key Coal Industry Companies**

Companies with better-than-expected performance include 4 companies: China Shenhua (Q1-3 2025 EPS 1.97, YOY -15.01%; coal production and sales volume growth in Q3), Shaanxi Coal Industry (1.29, -21.46%; coal production growth year-on-year, coal price increases), Shanmei International (0.64, -38.99%; volume and price both rose in Q3); China Power Investment Corporation Nengyang Energy (1.91, -2.39%, the company has a high proportion of long-term coal contracts with relatively stable selling prices, and benefits from rising aluminum prices).

Companies with performance basically in line with expectations include 9 companies: China Coal Energy (0.89, -18.92%, coal price rebound in Q3, good cost control); Yankuang Energy (Q1-3 2025 EPS 0.70, YOY -48.67%; domestic and international coal price rebounds in Q3, increased sales volume through inventory sales); Lu'an Environmental Energy (0.68, -27.33%; coal price declines, but good cost control); Shanxi Coking Coal (0.25, -49.45%; coking coal price declines); Huaibei Mining (0.51, -68%; production and sales volume declines, coking coal price declines); Huayang New Material (0.28, -43.36%, production area coal price declines, but Qiyuan Mine production start and Yushupo capacity increase, so company's 2025 production growth); Jincheng Anthracite Coal Mining Group (0.74, -42.84%; production area coal price declines); Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining (0.15, -82.28%; coking coal price declines); Xin集 Energy (0.51, -26.52%; cost control brings smaller coal gross margin decline, power generation and sales volume growth).

Companies below expectations include 1 company: Shaanxi Heimao (Q1-3 2025 EPS -0.32, YOY -3.82%; coke prices under periodic pressure).

**Target Recommendations**

Key recommendations for low-valuation elastic targets include Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ), Huaibei Mining (600985.SH), Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH), Yankuang Energy (600188.SH); optimistic about peak season demand recovery driving sustained thermal coal price rebounds, recommending stable operation, high dividend yield targets China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH); additionally, suggesting attention to thermal coal elastic targets Jincheng Anthracite Coal Mining Group (601001.SH), Huayang New Material (600348.SH), TBEA (600089.SH), Shanmei International (600546.SH).

**Risk Warning**

Macroeconomic decline exceeding expectations, coal demand below expectations; international coal prices declining beyond expectations.