NISA投资顾问公司策略师斯蒂芬·道格拉斯指出，与关税相关的通胀效应预计在未来数月仍有约三分之一有待传导至经济体系。这一态势将使经济保持稳健运行，同时促使美联储在短期内维持利率不变。
"经济正重新步入软着陆轨道，"他分析称，"劳动力市场将逐步趋稳，而关税通胀的残余影响将在上半年完成传导。"道格拉斯预计下半年商品通胀率将跌破零值水平，这将使美联储的降息时机晚于市场预期。
"我们预测今年将在9月和12月分别实施降息。"此番研判揭示了货币政策与市场预期之间的微妙时差。
（本文基于市场分析师观点整理，不构成投资建议）
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