The Middle East conflict is causing market fatigue, with Iran's situation taking unexpected turns. According to the latest updates on the 19th, Iran's Nour News reported that Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, in a letter to the UN Secretary-General, stated that the UAE bears compensation liability for "allowing the US to launch airstrikes against Iran from its territory." Meanwhile, Xinhua News Agency reported that Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson Effie Defrin said on the 18th that the military will not halt its "series of targeted operations" against senior Iranian officials. Israeli Defense Minister Katz announced on the same day that he and Netanyahu jointly authorized the military to strike "any senior Iranian official" without prior approval, declaring "all Iranians as targets."

Simultaneously, the latest Yahoo/YouGov poll indicates that the Iran conflict has triggered a sharp rise in US oil prices, sparking a chain reaction in domestic American politics. Approximately two-thirds (66%) of US respondents expressed disapproval of the government's handling of oil prices. Today, Asia-Pacific markets fell across the board, while international oil prices continued to surge. Citigroup projected that Brent crude prices could rise to $110–120 per barrel in the coming days. Morgan Stanley, often regarded as a market "whistleblower," issued a report advising investors to sell stocks amid this week's market rally, warning of deeper declines as energy prices spike.

Iran Situation and Chain Reactions According to CCTV News, sources within Iran revealed that recent US and Israeli attacks on Iranian medical facilities have resulted in at least 18 healthcare worker fatalities. On February 28, the US and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, during which former Supreme Leader Khamenei and several senior military and political officials were killed in airstrikes. Iran retaliated by targeting Israeli and US military bases in the Middle East. Notably, on March 19, the deputy governor of Iran's Lorestan Province stated that US and Israeli attacks on a residential area on the 18th had killed 12 people and injured 116. Separately, the Israeli Defense Forces reported on the 19th that Iran had launched its fifth ballistic missile attack since midnight, with no immediate reports of casualties or damage. The missile was said to carry a cluster munition warhead and struck an open area.

Nour News further reported that Iran's UN ambassador, in the letter to the Secretary-General, emphasized the UAE's liability for compensation due to permitting US airstrikes from its territory. The conflict has driven significant increases in US oil prices, triggering domestic political repercussions. A Yahoo/YouGov poll conducted from March 12–16 showed that 66% of US respondents disapproved of the government's handling of oil prices, with only 27% in favor. Disapproval of the government's approach to cost-of-living issues reached 67%, with just 26% approval. Overall, public approval of the US government's economic management fell 5 percentage points from the previous month (from 37% to 32%), while disapproval rose 4 points (from 57% to 61%). The poll also indicated that 80% of respondents considered gasoline prices too high, 67% expected further increases in the coming months, and 45% anticipated a sharp rise. Even among Republican supporters, 45% expected gasoline prices to rise versus 40% predicting a decline.

Morgan Stanley's Unexpected Warning Following a sharp rebound in the previous trading session, major Asia-Pacific stock indices closed lower today. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 3.38%, South Korea's KOSPI dropped 2.73%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 and New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 both declined nearly 2%. Morgan Stanley advised investors to sell stocks during this week's rally in Asian markets, warning that energy price surges could lead to steeper market declines. The report noted that Brent prices are approaching the bank's adverse scenario forecast of $120–130 per barrel. Compared to other regions, Asia is more vulnerable to disruptions in oil and LNG supplies. Under a severe scenario, Asian markets could fall into bearish territory, declining 15–20% from current levels. Morgan Stanley also highlighted Asia's exposure to disruptions in raw materials for agriculture and industrial production. Additionally, signals that interest rates may remain unchanged amid potential stagflation present another negative factor for Asian markets.

Citigroup's latest report pointed out that escalating Middle East conflicts and rising risks of energy supply disruptions could drive international oil prices sharply higher in the short term, with Brent crude expected to reach $110–120 per barrel in the coming days. The bank suggested that prices will continue rising until they reach levels prompting political or strategic intervention. The report, led by Citigroup's global head of commodities Maximilian Layton, indicated a 50% probability in its updated baseline scenario, assuming supply disruptions from the conflict lasting 4–6 weeks, potentially affecting 11–16 million barrels per day. Citigroup noted that as the conflict persists, Brent prices could rebound to the $110–120 range, with markets continuing to climb until triggering policy responses. Potential reactions include the US halting military operations, aggressive releases of strategic petroleum reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OECD members, or major nations taking action to reopen critical energy transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Citigroup also warned that risks of further escalation remain significant. In an optimistic scenario with a 30% probability—where Iran expands attacks to more energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz remains closed by June—Brent could rise to $150 per barrel, or even $200 under extreme conditions. Conversely, a pessimistic scenario with a 20% probability assumes a rapid US-Iran agreement reopening the Strait, easing global supply pressures and pulling oil prices down to $65–70 per barrel by year-end.

Beyond oil, Citigroup expressed optimism about aluminum price prospects, noting low global inventories and potential production cuts at Middle Eastern smelters due to tensions, which could reduce global supply by about 6% and drive prices higher.

On March 19, Zhu Yexin of CITIC Securities stated at the 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum that recent government work reports, combined with regulatory statements and measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, emphasize stabilizing markets and fostering long-term investment ecosystems as essential for high-quality capital market development. Zhu argued that based on this reinforced underlying logic, the global appeal of Chinese assets continues to rise. Driven by fundamental recovery and incremental capital inflows, the A-share market is transitioning from存量博弈 (stock game) to增量配置 (incremental allocation), forming a more resilient and stable capital market ecosystem.