Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil exports are entering a rare "data black hole," as a growing number of tankers are deactivating their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) to avoid attacks. This has made it extremely difficult to track actual loading operations at key export terminals like Yanbu, significantly increasing uncertainty in the assessment of global crude supply.
According to recent warnings, the Houthi group has threatened international shipping companies that vessels trading with Saudi ports could face military strikes, expanding the scope of its previously announced maritime blockade. The warning has been in effect since July 20.
Since the blockade took effect, cargoes from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port have frequently been operating as "dark ships." Analysis from Vortexa indicates that no loading operations at Yanbu port activated their AIS last week. Meanwhile, Kpler notes that approximately 70% of loading operations on Saudi Arabia's west coast were conducted in "dark ship" mode in recent weeks, with every shipment from Yanbu since July 23 involving vessels lacking continuous AIS coverage.
The security risks in the Red Sea remain elevated. The Yemeni Coast Guard reported that the Houthis launched a missile attack on a commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, resulting in casualties including both crew members and Yemeni armed personnel.
With shipping risks and data gaps overlapping, the market faces difficulty confirming the actual scale of Saudi oil exports. This could also lead to inaccurate assessments of the global crude supply-demand balance, thereby increasing the uncertainty in oil price pricing.
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The information vacuum created by the blockade has directly led to massive discrepancies in export estimates from different agencies. For the week of August 3, Vortexa estimated Yanbu's crude exports at 2.38 million barrels per day, down from 2.71 million barrels per day. Kpler's data showed a sharp drop from 4.04 million barrels per day to 1.78 million barrels per day. In stark contrast, AXSMarine's estimate indicated an increase from approximately 420,000 barrels per day to 850,000 barrels per day.
The same port and the same time period yielded data differences of millions of barrels per day between different agencies. Since AIS data is a cornerstone for global crude trade tracking and supply-demand balance calculations, the data gap implies that the IEA, OPEC, and market participants cannot independently verify actual Saudi export volumes. For one of the world's largest crude exporters, this "data blind spot" could amplify market misjudgments regarding supply gluts or deficits.
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In response to the Red Sea shipping risks, Saudi Arabia is adjusting its crude export routes. Some crude volumes are now being transported northward, heading to Mediterranean markets via the Suez Canal or Egypt's SUMED pipeline.
Shipping data also shows a clear decline in vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. An average of about 32 ships pass through the strait daily, well below the pre-blockade level of approximately 50 ships per day.
Satellite imagery analysis further confirms that loading activity at Saudi Red Sea crude terminals has shrunk significantly. Independent maritime data analysis indicates that loading activity at these terminals has fallen by about half since the blockade took effect. The average oil storage at the King Fahd and Muajjiz terminals has also dropped from around 10 million barrels per satellite pass before the blockade to about 5 million barrels.
This suggests that Saudi Arabia is mitigating shipping security risks by adjusting transport routes and reducing its exposure at Red Sea ports. However, this strategy simultaneously makes it more difficult for the global market to track the actual flow of its crude.