Abstract

Ryan Specialty Group Holdings, Inc. will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 12, 2026, Post Market, with models pointing to year-over-year revenue expansion and solid adjusted earnings per share, while investors watch margin execution and segment momentum across net commissions and fees.

Market Forecast

Consensus-style models for the current quarter indicate total revenue of USD 777.61 million, up 18.06% year over year, adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.49, up 8.76% year over year, and EBIT of USD 159.79 million, down 13.14% year over year. Forecast data for gross profit margin and net profit margin is not available, and is therefore omitted.

The main business continues to revolve around net commissions and fees, where revenue concentration and operational scale have supported recent growth and an outlook for continued expansion, albeit with close attention on expense discipline. The segment with the strongest potential remains net commissions and fees, delivered at USD 739.55 million last quarter, with company-level revenue growth of 24.79% year over year reinforcing demand and pricing resilience.

Last Quarter Review

Ryan Specialty Group Holdings, Inc. posted last quarter revenue of USD 754.58 million, a gross profit margin of 41.94%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 31.09 million, a net profit margin of 4.20%, and adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.47, up 14.63% year over year. Notably, EBIT reached USD 161.74 million, beating the quarter’s estimate by USD 5.52 million, while revenue also surpassed projections by USD 17.35 million, highlighting resilient top-line performance against a backdrop of margin scrutiny.

Main business highlights were dominated by net commissions and fees at USD 739.55 million, accounting for 98.01% of total revenue, complemented by trust investment income of USD 15.03 million, and accompanied by company-level revenue growth of 24.79% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business Trajectory

Net commissions and fees remain the central engine of quarterly results, given the model-estimated revenue advance to USD 777.61 million and the tendency for top-line expansion to be led by transaction volume, rate carryover, and client wins across established distribution platforms. The company’s prior quarter showed evidence of operating leverage in revenue while EBIT faced year-over-year pressure, signaling that compensation, staffing, and growth investments are the key levers to watch as the quarter closes. Management’s approach to aligning cost growth with top-line progress will likely define whether the implied adjusted EPS of USD 0.49 converts to in-line or better performance, particularly as sales momentum is balanced by the structural costs of building specialty capabilities and expanding the client base. Because gross margin and net margin forecasts are not disclosed, investors will focus on realized mix within commissions and fees, the cadence of contingent income, and the degree to which operating expenses absorb lift from higher revenue.

Largest Growth Potential Segment

Net commissions and fees, at USD 739.55 million last quarter, represent the platform’s largest and most scalable revenue stream, and are well positioned to carry growth into the current quarter. Sequentially, revenue models imply a stable to rising trajectory, supported by the breadth of specialty lines processed through wholesale, underwriting, and transactional services, and by retention that tends to underpin continuity in commissions. The quarter’s EBIT forecast, down 13.14% year over year to USD 159.79 million, puts emphasis on cost allocation and variable payout structures; the degree to which profit sharing and incentive accruals track top-line momentum will influence reported margins and the conversion of commissions into earnings. Given the lack of direct segment-level growth data for the current quarter, company-level revenue growth of 18.06% year over year provides a reasonable frame for expectations, conditioned on executing mix and managing expenses in line with the prior quarter’s revenue outperformance and EBIT discipline.

Key Share-Price Drivers This Quarter

The primary share-price driver will be whether reported adjusted EPS lands at or above USD 0.49, and whether revenue achieves or exceeds USD 777.61 million while demonstrating balanced margin outcomes. Investors will parse EBIT versus the USD 159.79 million model figure, looking for signals that compensation and benefits, technology investments, and integration-related costs are yielding productivity improvements without eroding margin quality. Upside surprise potential hinges on stronger-than-anticipated commissions throughput and fee capture, while downside risks are most closely tied to cost intensity that defers operating leverage, given the year-over-year EBIT compression embedded in the forecast. Management’s commentary on the sustainability of revenue growth, the predictability of contingent income, and the durability of client pipelines will be decisive for near-term valuation reactions, along with any updates on accretive initiatives and the pace at which operating overhead is absorbed by expanding revenue.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate recent commentary, with a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 5:0 among the identified ratings, and one neutral hold positioned outside the majority. Wells Fargo maintained a Buy rating with a USD 61.00 price target, emphasizing expectations for continued revenue growth and solid execution that can translate into stable EPS outcomes despite EBIT variability. Barclays reiterated a Buy rating, citing USD 70.00 as fair value on the strength of the commissions-and-fees backbone and resilience in top-line momentum that supports above-peer growth within the company’s platform. TD Cowen also repeated a Buy rating, with a USD 76.00 price target, reflecting conviction in the earnings trajectory and a view that the upcoming quarter can validate disciplined expense management and revenue capture even as year-over-year EBIT compares remain demanding. Bank of America maintained a Buy stance, highlighting the earnings potential from coherent distribution and underwriting capabilities that reinforce the visibility of commissions over time.

Analysts in the bullish camp are broadly aligned that near-term revenue expansion and adjusted EPS results around USD 0.49 can be achieved if the company continues converting its pipeline into recognized commissions while calibrating compensation and cost investments to match the pace of growth. Their commentary suggests incremental valuation support if management provides clarity on the path from EBIT headwinds to operating margin stabilization, particularly through improved mix, technology-enabled productivity, and measured hiring relative to volume. This view also places weight on the company’s ability to demonstrate that last quarter’s revenue beat of USD 17.35 million was not a one-off, but the result of underlying drivers that persist into the current period. Taken together, the majority perspective anticipates a constructive print where revenue and adjusted EPS track favorable year-over-year trends, and where management detail on expense control, commissions sustainability, and earnings quality becomes the key catalyst for the shares following the February 12, 2026, Post Market release.