Abstract
Ondas Holdings Inc. will release quarterly results on May 14, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus-style projections for revenue and earnings, reviews last quarter’s performance, and assesses order momentum, integration progress, and catalysts that could influence near-term trading.
Market Forecast
Based on the company’s latest guidance framework, this quarter’s revenue is projected at 39.36 million US dollars, implying year-over-year growth of 627.86%; adjusted EPS is forecast at -$0.06, reflecting a 36.74% year-over-year improvement, and EBIT is expected at -28.41 million US dollars, suggesting a 297.32% year-over-year decline in operating income. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin have not been provided by the company; earnings are expected to remain negative given the EBIT outlook.
The near-term outlook emphasizes order conversion from previously announced wins and backlog, as management works through production and integration milestones to support deliveries and recurring revenue performance. The most promising area is autonomous platforms and mission systems tied to recent large program wins and integration efforts, where the company highlighted sizable orders and pro forma backlog entering the quarter, reinforcing a strong pipeline for future revenue recognition.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior reported quarter, Ondas Holdings Inc. delivered revenue of 30.11 million US dollars with a gross profit margin of 42.28%, reported GAAP net loss attributable to the parent of 99.66 million US dollars, net profit margin not disclosed, and adjusted EPS of -$0.08, which represented a 57.90% year-over-year improvement. One notable financial highlight was a revenue outperformance versus internal estimates of 2.03 million US dollars, a 7.24% positive surprise, demonstrating better-than-anticipated top-line execution. Within the operating mix, products contributed 34.58 million US dollars, while services and subscriptions delivered 10.24 million US dollars and development activities accounted for 5.91 million US dollars; year-over-year comparatives by segment were not disclosed.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business performance drivers
Execution this quarter hinges on converting late-2025 and early-2026 awards into recognized revenue while maintaining cost discipline to support a path toward improved earnings quality. The last quarter’s gross profit margin of 42.28% sets a reference point for unit economics as the company scales delivery of products and related services; sustaining or improving this level will depend on production yields, mix, and the pace of field deployments. The company’s revenue estimate of 39.36 million US dollars implies a sharp year-over-year acceleration, which reinforces the need for timely fulfillment and integration capabilities to avoid revenue deferrals. Management’s forecast for adjusted EPS at -$0.06 implies ongoing losses but with year-over-year improvement; achieving this requires tight operating expense control in the face of higher delivery volumes and program ramp costs. Investors will be watching whether revenue growth can outpace the increase in operating costs reflected in the negative EBIT estimate, as that would set the stage for operating leverage in subsequent periods.
The prior quarter’s better-than-expected revenue suggests healthy near-term demand conversion, though it also raises the bar for consistency. If the company can match or exceed its own revenue outlook again, it would support the bull case that order momentum is translating into sustained quarterly run-rate improvements. Conversely, any slippage in conversion—whether from supply chain, customer acceptance timing, or internal integration—could mute the projected revenue ramp and weigh on the loss trajectory this quarter.
Most promising business and growth catalysts
The most visible growth vector in the current period is the autonomous platforms and mission systems portfolio, where newly announced awards and program integrations are positioned to drive future sales and recurring support work. Management disclosed an initial order of approximately 68.00 million US dollars on April 13, 2026 for heavy ground vehicles under a previously indicated 140.00 million US dollars military engineering program, with initial deliveries expected to begin later this year; while this is not all revenue for the current quarter, it provides confidence around the multiquarter revenue pipeline. On April 24, 2026, the company reported completion of a 175.00 million US dollars merger with Mistral, adding about 264.00 million US dollars of contracted backlog and yielding a pro forma backlog of roughly 457.00 million US dollars as of March 31, 2026; this integrated backlog supports visibility into future deliveries and may gradually uplift quarterly revenue if execution milestones are met. Additionally, on April 15, 2026 the company formed a European joint venture focused on autonomous defense solutions deployment, creating another avenue for orders in a new geography that could support recurring hardware, software, and service revenue over time.
Near term, revenue contribution from these developments will depend on program phasing, inventory availability, and acceptance testing schedules, which can vary by program and customer requirements. The backlog level indicates scope for multi-quarter growth, but the timing of revenue recognition may be uneven across quarters, especially during early ramp stages of large contracts. Investors should track newly announced deliveries, acceptance milestones, and any commentary on lead times to gauge how much of the large orders and backlog may convert in the current quarter versus later in the year.
Key stock price drivers this quarter
The most impactful driver for the stock this quarter is whether reported revenue meets or exceeds the 39.36 million US dollars estimate alongside evidence of stable or improving gross margins relative to last quarter’s 42.28%. Delivery announcements and progress updates tied to recent orders and the newly integrated backlog are likely to shape sentiment, as they inform visibility into future quarters and support valuation frameworks that rely on backlog conversion and recurring revenues from support and services. Given the forecast for negative EBIT of -28.41 million US dollars and negative adjusted EPS, investors will also look for signs of cost scaling discipline, integration synergies from recent corporate actions, and any indications of operating leverage from higher volumes.
Secondary stock factors include capital markets dynamics and technical supply of shares. In late April, the stock experienced pressure following a shareholder plan to resell 1.50 million shares, prompting near-term volatility and underscoring sensitivity to secondary activity; subsequent sessions saw partial recovery as markets absorbed supply, suggesting that follow-through from the company’s execution updates can counterbalance technical selling. Price reactions around the Pre-Market print on May 14, 2026 may be amplified by how management frames delivery cadence for the remainder of 2026, especially against the backdrop of the increased backlog and any comments on expected quarterly revenue progression.
Analyst Opinions
Across the tracked period from January 1, 2026 through May 7, 2026, published ratings were overwhelmingly bullish. Notably, Lake Street’s Max Michaelis maintained a Buy rating twice during the period with a 19.00 US dollars price target, citing constructive expectations around the company’s pipeline and execution prospects. The ratio of bullish to bearish opinions during this period stands at 100% bullish and 0% bearish among the tracked notes.
The bullish stance centers on the scale of orders and the enhanced visibility created by a larger pro forma backlog following the completion of the Mistral transaction on April 24, 2026. Lake Street’s repetition of the Buy rating with a consistent target signals confidence that order flow and integration can support a multi-quarter revenue ramp, even if near-term profitability remains negative as programs scale. In evaluating the current quarter, this view implies that investors may look past temporary losses if the company delivers on its top-line projection of 39.36 million US dollars and provides clear evidence of backlog conversion in subsequent quarters.
Analyst enthusiasm also reflects the company’s expanding operational footprint and collaboration initiatives. The European joint venture announced on April 15, 2026 is seen by bullish observers as an important beachhead that can accelerate deployments in a new region and diversify sources of revenue beyond existing programs. Combined with the April 13, 2026 initial order of approximately 68.00 million US dollars under a 140.00 million US dollars engineering program, the setup creates a narrative of increasing contractual demand that, if executed well, could translate into stronger recurring revenues from lifecycle support and services.
In the context of the May 14, 2026 Pre-Market report, bullish analysts will likely anchor on two deliverables: confirmation that revenue meets or exceeds the 39.36 million US dollars projection and management commentary that clarifies the cadence of revenue recognition from large orders, including anticipated acceptance milestones and delivery phasing. Clarity on gross margin trajectory versus the prior quarter’s 42.28% will be another focal point, as it provides evidence for or against the path to break-even adjusted EPS beyond the current forecast of -$0.06. Should management demonstrate continued momentum in deliveries alongside disciplined operating expenses, analysts with a favorable view may reiterate positive ratings with an emphasis on multiquarter growth visibility rooted in the reported backlog.
Overall, opinion skew is firmly positive in the current window, with institutional commentary emphasizing pipeline conversion, integration progress, and order momentum as the primary supports for the investment case in the near term. How these elements translate into reported numbers and guidance updates on May 14, 2026 will determine whether the bullish consensus strengthens or moderates into the next quarter.