Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday, surprising many investors as the market had remained weak for most of the session. The rebound came after Baker Hughes reported at 2:15 AM that the US oil rig count for the week ending November 28 unexpectedly fell by 12 to 407, down from the previous 419. This decline signaled that low oil prices are beginning to curb shale production activity, triggering the day’s strongest rally and ultimately pushing prices into positive territory.

For the fourth consecutive trading day, oil prices have oscillated in a tight range, reflecting cautious investor positioning amid lingering uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine peace prospects. The US-proposed peace framework remains a bearish factor, keeping traders hesitant to chase rallies unless negotiations collapse—though neither side has indicated such an outcome yet.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned against premature conclusions about the Ukraine conflict’s resolution, stating it was too early to predict an imminent peace deal. Meanwhile, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov noted that while Moscow has informally received multiple versions of the US peace proposal—some containing contradictions—it has yet to formally review or discuss specifics. He acknowledged some positive elements but emphasized the need for further negotiations.

While the final outcome of peace talks remains uncertain, the market reaction has been most evident in European diesel crack spreads, which have retreated sharply due to seasonal factors and easing supply concerns. Geopolitically, Venezuela faces pressure from US sanctions, but no immediate escalation is anticipated. Given the high uncertainty, risk management remains critical for oil market participants.

**Daily Market Moves** - WTI crude rose 1.21% to $58.65/barrel; Brent gained 1.2% to $62.54/barrel. - INE crude futures closed up 0.79% at CNY 446.3/barrel. - The USD index dipped 0.22% to 99.59, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.67%.

**Key Updates** 1. **EIA Report**: US commercial crude inventories rose by 2.77 million barrels to 427 million, defying expectations of a 55,000-barrel build. Cushing stocks fell by 68,000 barrels. SPR reserves increased by 498,000 barrels. 2. **OPEC+ Preview**: The alliance is expected to maintain current output at its Sunday meeting, focusing instead on theoretical capacity assessments to inform future policy. Quota adjustments remain unlikely without full consensus. 3. **Goldman Sachs**: A Russia-Ukraine peace deal could push Brent prices down to $50/barrel by 2026, $5 below its base forecast, amid prolonged oversupply before rebalancing in 2027.