Abstract

Safehold Inc. will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 11, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes company forecasts and recent commentary to assess expected revenue, margins, earnings per share, and business mix, and to frame the majority analyst stance into a cohesive outlook.

Market Forecast

Consensus implied by the company’s forecast points to fourth-quarter revenue of $96.94 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.42 and EBIT of $79.29 million; year over year, revenue is projected to rise by 5.20%, EPS by 14.85%, and EBIT by 95.36%. Forecast margin color implies a continuation of high structural gross profit margin and stable net profitability, though specific point estimates for gross profit margin and net profit margin were not provided for this quarter. Safehold’s main business is expected to continue to be driven by sales-type lease interest and operating lease contributions, supported by disciplined origination and a stable funding profile. The segment with the most promising near-term trajectory remains sales-type lease interest, the largest revenue contributor; year-over-year growth for this segment was not separately disclosed in the forecast but remains the central driver given its scale.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Safehold posted revenue of $96.16 million, a gross profit margin of 98.61%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $29.28 million, a net profit margin of 29.04%, and adjusted EPS of $0.41; year over year, revenue grew by 6.02% and adjusted EPS increased by 10.81%. A notable highlight was consistent margin quality, with gross profit margin remaining near structural highs, aided by the interest-based nature of ground lease income and low cost-to-serve operations. Main business revenue composition showed sales-type lease interest at $72.43 million, operating lease at $16.99 million, interest at $3.09 million, and other at $3.66 million; year-over-year on a consolidated basis the company expanded top line by 6.02%, with the sales-type lease interest category anchoring the performance.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Ground-lease income from sales-type lease interest and operating lease

Safehold’s core cash engine continues to be contractual ground-lease economics. The forecasted revenue of $96.94 million reflects a measured pickup from last quarter’s $96.16 million and aligns with the nature of fixed or CPI-linked escalators embedded in long-duration ground leases. The exceptional gross margin structure shown last quarter at 98.61% is characteristic of the model, where revenue is largely spread-based yield over a lean operating base. For this quarter, the key watch items are net interest income progression, new originations versus repayments, and any performance fees or non-core items that could influence run-rate EBIT. Given the 5.20% year-over-year revenue growth guidance proxy, incremental contributions likely stem from lease escalators and a modest improvement in portfolio mix, while funding costs and credit spreads will frame the net profitability cadence.

Most promising business: Sales-type lease interest

Sales-type lease interest remains the largest contributor at $72.43 million last quarter and is positioned to drive the quarter’s incremental growth. The segment benefits directly from lease escalators and duration, which provide high visibility on recurring cash flows. An expansion in the portfolio through disciplined originations at spreads that offset funding costs could add incremental lift to revenue and EBIT, a point consistent with the guided step-up in EBIT to $79.29 million. The sustainability of this contribution will depend on origination volumes achieved late in 2025 and early in 2026 and any shifts in tenant credit quality; however, the reported stability in asset performance last quarter supports the base case for continued contribution from this segment.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

Margin durability and funding costs are central to the stock’s near-term path. Last quarter’s net profit margin of 29.04% sets a reference point, and investors will focus on whether this quarter’s margin is maintained alongside the projected 14.85% rise in adjusted EPS to $0.42. Management’s commentary on new ground-lease originations and pipeline conversion could influence revenue trajectory into 2026; a stronger closing pace would support confidence in the 2026 earnings build. Balance sheet and ratings momentum offer another variable: a recent upgrade to an A- credit rating signals stable asset quality and can reduce long-term funding costs, creating a modest tailwind to net interest margins and valuation multiples if carried into 2026 transactions.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing view among institutions tilts positive, with multiple buy ratings contrasting with fewer holds and limited negative calls in the past six months. Supportive elements cited by bullish analysts include resilient asset performance, the durability of ground-lease cash flows, and constructive implications from a credit rating upgrade to A-, which strengthens funding access and could compress borrowing costs. One widely referenced investment bank reiterated a Buy rating and a mid-teens price target in late 2025, emphasizing improving earnings visibility as escalators flow through and EBIT rises, consistent with the company’s forecast of $79.29 million and adjusted EPS of $0.42 for this quarter. Another major firm highlighted the structural margin advantage demonstrated by the recent 98.61% gross profit margin and viewed the incremental revenue growth of 5.20% year over year as sufficient to support gradual multiple re-rating, contingent on steady originations.

In the supportive camp, analysts point to the last quarter’s clean execution against estimates—revenue of $96.16 million slightly exceeded expectations and adjusted EPS of $0.41 beat by $0.02—arguing that a repeat or modest improvement would underpin the case for medium-term earnings compounding. The positive narrative also notes that the A- rating endorsement aligns with stable asset quality, which may facilitate broader investor participation and potentially lower unsecured funding costs. Bulls generally frame the setup as balanced: high-visibility leases and strong margins offset cyclical funding dynamics, with the near-term test being whether the company delivers on the forecast EPS of $0.42 and preserves the near-30.00% net profit margin zone. Overall, the preponderance of favorable ratings and the emphasis on stable fundamentals anchor a cautiously constructive stance heading into February 11, 2026 Post Market.