Abstract

Bank of NT Butterfield & Son will report fiscal Q4 2025 results on February 09, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, consensus forecasts on revenue, margin, and EPS, and the prevailing analyst stance alongside business segment dynamics into the print.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, the market projects revenue of $153.49 million, an adjusted EPS of $1.47, and EBIT of $63.40 million; year over year, these imply growth of 7.60%, 25.36%, and 16.87%, respectively. A net profit margin near last quarter’s 39.84% is anticipated, underpinned by stable asset yields and disciplined expense control, though no explicit gross profit margin forecast is available. The main business is expected to maintain steady performance supplemented by resilient deposit funding and fee-based income stability. The most promising contributor is interest-related revenue, which benefits from improving asset yields; revenue is projected at $153.49 million, up 7.60% year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, revenue was $153.30 million, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was $61.06 million with a net profit margin of 39.84% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.51%, while adjusted EPS reached $1.46; gross profit margin was not disclosed. Quarterly profitability improved on operating leverage and lower credit costs, resulting in positive margin dynamics. The company’s main business remained solid with balanced interest income and fee income, though a detailed revenue breakdown was not available.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Banking and Interest Income Trajectory

The outlook for core banking income centers on balance-sheet mix and pricing. The forecast revenue of $153.49 million, up 7.60% year over year, implies continued support from net interest income as asset yields remain favorable relative to deposit costs. Given the last quarter’s 39.84% net profit margin, investors will watch whether funding costs have stabilized and whether asset repricing continues to flow through earning assets. Fee income from trust, custody, and cards can provide a stabilizer if rate-sensitive income moderates, but the current consensus embeds a modest revenue climb that still leans on interest spreads. Execution on expense discipline will be crucial for sustaining double-digit EPS growth alongside mid-single-digit top-line expansion, with EBIT growth projected at 16.87% suggesting incremental operating leverage.

Most Promising Driver: Net Interest Income and Asset Yield Repricing

Net interest income remains the key swing factor for profitability this quarter. With revenue projected to rise 7.60% year over year and adjusted EPS expected to be $1.47, a supportive rate environment and asset mix optimization can extend margin resilience. The company’s quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 14.51% last quarter indicates that asset yields outpaced liability costs or that noninterest expenses were contained; the question for this quarter is how much of that improvement is repeatable as competitive deposit pricing persists. Maintaining disciplined loan growth and selective securities reinvestment at attractive yields can reinforce earnings durability, while caution on longer-duration commitments can mitigate reinvestment risk should the rate outlook shift.

Stock Price Sensitivities: Credit Quality, Deposit Dynamics, and Operating Costs

The stock’s near-term reaction will likely hinge on three elements. Credit quality must remain benign to preserve the forecast EPS trajectory; negative surprises in provisions could compress the expected 16.87% EBIT growth. Deposit flows and pricing are pivotal for sustaining a net profit margin near 39.84%; funding stability and mix toward noninterest-bearing or low-beta deposits would support spreads. Operating cost control is the third lever: with revenue growth of 7.60%, even small efficiency gains can translate to earnings upside, while expense drift could compress margins and pressure the EPS print against a $1.47 expectation.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views appear to dominate among institutions, emphasizing margin stability and consistent capital return capacity into the quarter, with the consensus looking for revenue of $153.49 million and EPS of $1.47. Supportive analysts point to last quarter’s outperformance versus estimates on revenue and EPS, coupled with projected EBIT growth of 16.87% year over year as evidence of operating leverage resilience. The majority opinion expects continued net interest income strength and contained credit costs to keep returns healthy, while acknowledging that deposit pricing and broader rate path uncertainties are the primary variables for guidance tone and valuation trajectory.