Abstract

Reynolds Consumer Products, Inc. will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 04, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue, margin, and EPS, reviews last quarter’s outcomes, and evaluates near-term drivers and risks for core segments and the company’s most promising businesses.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.01 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 3.63%, with EBIT estimated at $180.69 million and EPS at $0.59, suggesting year-over-year EPS growth of 2.13%. While explicit gross margin and net margin forecasts are not provided, model assumptions embedded in EPS and EBIT suggest modest operating improvement versus last year. The company’s mix continues to be anchored by Waste & Storage, Cooking Products, and Tableware, with expectations for steady seasonal demand and disciplined pricing to support year-over-year expansion in the quarter. The most promising segment appears to be Waste & Storage, which generated $429.00 million last quarter and is positioned to benefit from durable household replenishment patterns and product innovation; year-over-year detail for this segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the third quarter of 2025, Reynolds Consumer Products, Inc. delivered revenue of $931.00 million, a gross profit margin of 25.03%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $79.00 million, a net profit margin of 8.49%, and adjusted EPS of $0.42; revenue rose 2.31% year over year, and adjusted EPS increased 2.44% year over year. Quarter-on-quarter, GAAP net profit grew 8.22%, aided by stable gross margin and disciplined operating expense control. By segment, Waste & Storage contributed $429.00 million, Cooking Products $308.00 million, and Tableware $200.00 million, with an unallocated adjustment of -$6.00 million; year-over-year segment changes were not specified.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main commercial engine: Waste & Storage

Waste & Storage remains the core revenue driver, producing $429.00 million last quarter and benefiting from its mix of branded trash bags, storage solutions, and related household consumables. In the current quarter, steady category elasticity and private-label competition discipline favor stable pricing, and promotional intensity appears contained relative to earlier inflationary cycles. Seasonality into the winter months typically offers resilient sell-through for replenishment items, and the quarter’s EPS estimate of $0.59 implies operating leverage if cost inputs and logistics remain stable. Profit sensitivity will hinge on resin and freight; given the recent gross margin of 25.03%, even a modest improvement in sourcing or procurement could push incremental EBIT dollars, helping to close the gap to forecast EBIT of $180.69 million. Execution risks include retailer inventory calibration after holiday demand and any trade-down behavior in lower-income cohorts, but category leadership and brand stickiness should limit volume volatility.

Most promising business: Cooking Products

Cooking Products generated $308.00 million last quarter and is positioned to capture incremental demand as at-home cooking remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic baselines. The line’s aluminum foil, parchment, and specialty cooking aids can outperform when food-at-home consumption holds up, and the fourth quarter can see steady restocking following holiday baking and entertaining. With revenue guided by consensus to reach $1.01 billion company-wide, a modest acceleration in Cooking Products mix can support both revenue and margin through higher value-added product penetrations. Input costs—particularly aluminum and paper—are the key watch items; if commodity pass-throughs remain aligned with contracts, gross margin could stay near or slightly above the recent 25.03%. The category’s innovation cadence, including format expansion and convenience features, is also a lever to defend shelf space and maintain price/pack architecture without heavy promotional dilution.

Stock-price swing factor this quarter: Tableware and margin dispersion

Tableware posted $200.00 million last quarter and can be a swing factor for margin dispersion due to SKU mix, channel promotions, and event-driven sell-through. The segment’s contribution margin is sensitive to packaging and resin costs, as well as to retail promotional calendars tied to winter gatherings. If sell-in was front-loaded into the holidays, retailers may trim reorders, pressuring sequential volumes; however, normalized inventory positions across major customers could prevent a sharp deceleration. The EBIT forecast of $180.69 million suggests the Street anticipates margin preservation across segments; upside could emerge if Tableware mix skews toward branded and premium, while downside risks include heavier discounting to clear seasonal items. Monitoring post-holiday retail commentary on traffic and basket composition will be important for gauging Tableware’s quarter-end cadence.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst sentiment over the last six months skews neutral-to-cautious, with a majority of notes indicating Hold/Neutral views and a minority expressing Buy. Notably, RBC Capital maintained a Hold rating with a $28.00 price target, highlighting balanced risk-reward into the print and a preference to see sustained improvement in category volumes before turning more constructive. Barclays also reiterated a Hold rating with a $25.00 price target, underscoring subdued volume growth expectations and a belief that valuation fairly reflects mid-single-digit top-line growth and stable margins. A supportive counterpoint came from Truist Financial, which maintained a Buy rating and emphasized potential for steady EPS compounding if commodity headwinds remain manageable and shelf price architecture holds, but this remains the minority stance within the period reviewed. The neutral-to-cautious camp focuses on several core issues for the current quarter. First, while the consensus revenue estimate of $1.01 billion implies a 3.63% year-over-year increase, the expected EPS of $0.59 embeds only a 2.13% year-over-year improvement, suggesting limited incremental operating leverage if volumes do not materially outpace price. Second, gross margin preservation near the recent 25.03% level is achievable but contingent on stable input costs and measured promotions; a small shift in mix toward more promotional Tableware could cap upside. Third, retailers’ inventory behavior post-holiday is a watchpoint; positive surprises would likely require indications of clean channel inventory and normalized reorder patterns, especially within Waste & Storage. These analysts generally want confirmation that revenue gains are not primarily price-led but supported by volumes, which would provide a sturdier base for margin expansion. From a positioning perspective into the quarter, the neutral camp expects results broadly in line with the Street and looks to management’s commentary on 2026 pricing cadence, commodity pass-throughs, and category growth for direction. If the company signals a constructive cost outlook and resilient demand in core categories, the bias could shift toward incremental upward revisions. Conversely, if guidance implies heavier promotional activity or softer retailer orders, the narrative could tilt back toward defending margins rather than expanding them.