The larger-degree structure is currently unfolding as a Wave B rebound from the 3943 low, with Wave B internally divided into three segments: B-a, B-b, and B-c.

B-a advanced from the 3943 low to a peak of 4696.85, and this upward leg has already been completed. B-b began its pullback from 4696.85 and takes the form of an a-b-c three-wave corrective structure. Within B-b: the first decline ran from 4696.85 to 4282.31; a rebound followed from 4282.31 to 4399.75, which itself was a with-trend move; and the final decline extended from 4399.75 to 4066.26, internally composed of a simple a-b-c three-wave structure rather than a five-wave impulsive decline, making it a relatively weak C sub-wave consistent with wave variation rules. Breaking it down further: sub-wave a fell from 4399.75 to 4111.01, sub-wave b rebounded from 4111.01 to 4226.66, and sub-wave c declined from 4226.66 to 4066.26.

Structure and Fibonacci Level Interpretation

Drawing Fibonacci retracements from the B-a peak at 4696.85, the low of the current B-b-c leg at 4066.26 lands almost exactly near the 0.786 retracement level at 4103.62. The modest price dip into this zone represents a relatively strong support area and an ideal target for the completion of B-b. From a pattern perspective, the full a-b-c three-segment structure of B-b has now played out, and the subjective assessment is that 4066.26 is a potential low for B-b. The key point: while B-b appears complete in form, it has not yet been confirmed as finished. Wave confirmation requires price signal validation, and a low alone is not sufficient to declare the correction over.

Two Scenarios for What Comes Next

Scenario 1 (bullish expectation: B-b correction ends and Wave B's final leg, the B-c rebound, begins). This requires that price does not effectively break below 4066.26 and instead breaks upward through 4226.66, the internal b-wave high of B-b-c. Once price holds firmly above 4226.66, the entire B-b correction would be confirmed complete and Wave B would launch its B-c rebound. Upside targets: the first target is 4399.75, the B-b-b high; further out, 4510.97 comes into view, with a potential challenge of the prior high at 4696.85.

Scenario 2 (bearish continuation: B-b-c is not over and the decline extends). This requires an effective break below 4066.26 accompanied by sustained downside. That would indicate the current B-b-c decline is not finished, meaning this a-b-c wave count is invalidated and the wave structure must be reclassified, with the downside then targeting the 0.1 level around 3942.

Key Price Levels

Strong support: 4066.26 (potential B-b low). First confirmation resistance: 4226.66 (the internal b-wave high of B-b-c; a break above confirms B-b has bottomed). Second resistance: 4399.75 (the B-b-b endpoint). Strong downside defense level: 3942.07.

Approach (technical reference only, not trading guidance)

First, prioritize staying on the sidelines: price is currently in the potential B-b low zone, so focus on short-term moves, refrain from preemptively bottom-fishing, and wait for confirmation signals. Second, bullish observation conditions: only when price holds above 4066.26 without making a new low and the 4-hour close stands firmly above 4226.66 can long opportunities on the B-c rebound be considered, with a stop placed below 4066. Third, bearish observation conditions: if price effectively breaks below 4066.26, it would signal that the B-b correction is extending, and the downside target near 3942 would come into focus.

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