Fresh positive catalysts emerged for markets shortly after the Asian trading session concluded on Tuesday afternoon, with crude oil prices experiencing a sudden and sharp drop around 5:00 PM Beijing time. In tandem, European and US equity markets completed a dramatic V-shaped recovery, while losses in gold and silver prices also narrowed considerably. Experienced market observers immediately linked this coordinated move to new developments concerning Iran.

A senior Iranian government official stated on Tuesday that Tehran would be willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington first takes steps to ease military pressure. This proposal, conveyed to Washington through intermediaries, is part of a broader effort by Tehran to restart negotiations and seeks a permanent end to hostilities between the two nations. The official noted that Iran plans to use the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York this week to hold consultations with the countries acting as middlemen.

While the official ruled out a face-to-face meeting between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump during the UN gathering, he indicated that progress toward a potential agreement remains possible. "There is a possibility of moving toward an agreement," the official said, while adding that Washington must demonstrate "seriousness and a willingness to fulfill commitments" for the diplomatic process to advance. The official explained that Iran is seeking signals from Washington to confirm its readiness to return to negotiations, take measures to end the military blockade of Iranian ports, and halt military operations related to the Strait of Hormuz. According to the official, if the US takes these actions, Iran would be prepared to reopen the strategic waterway within seven days and return to the negotiating table.

This follows a statement from Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei on Saturday, who said Tehran has presented Washington with seven conditions, including ending the blockade on Iranian ports and unfreezing Iranian assets.

Analysts at Zhongtai Securities previously noted that the situation in the Middle East will determine the sustainability of the stock market rebound. They point out that the political, financial, inventory, and military pressures on the Trump administration are approaching a critical threshold. However, the Middle East issue has evolved from a simple US-Iran standoff into a complex dynamic involving two strategic waterways and multiple oil-producing nations. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the dispute involves Iran's proposed adjustments to passage fees and management practices. Both sides could potentially return to a memorandum framework and seek compromise through transit volumes and fee arrangements.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait presents a more complicated picture, as it involves shifts in control and geopolitical realities. After the Houthis gained control of key ports, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all find it difficult to back down easily, significantly increasing the duration of the issue and the risk of spillover effects. Zhongtai Securities suggests that in a baseline scenario, major global powers would coordinate to handle the two straits separately. This would involve the US and Iran first reaching a partial arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis reducing attacks on Saudi energy facilities, and Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil infrastructure being constrained. If actual supply is restored under such conditions, oil prices would experience a genuine decline, expectations for further US Federal Reserve rate hikes would ease, and the height and sustainability of the technology sector rebound would both improve.

In a risk scenario, however, Iran and the Houthis would remain aligned, with both straits disrupted simultaneously, further impacting production and transportation in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia. With inventory levels already low in both China and the US, oil prices could spiral out of control under this scenario, significantly diminishing the quality of the technology market rally.