Price Projection for 7628 Electronic Fabric from a Specialty Fabric Viewpoint

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Yesterday

CITIC SEC has released a research report suggesting that, similar to the memory super cycle, the supply and demand for specialty electronic fabric is currently persistently tight. Driven by marginal profits, companies have a strong incentive to continuously shift production to specialty fabrics, leading to a sustained compression of weaving machine capacity for 7628 electronic fabric. From an investment return perspective, the current price increase cycle for 7628 electronic fabric has the potential to reach 8 yuan per meter. The logic behind the price hike for 7628 electronic fabric continues to be validated. According to SCI99, as of February 9, 2026, the average price of 7628 electronic fabric was 5.11 yuan per meter, a sharp increase of 0.4 yuan per meter, consistently supporting the thesis of a major price increase cycle. Considering both weaving machines and production line construction, and using the investment return rate of low-dielectric second-generation fabric as a benchmark, CITIC SEC believes the price increase potential for 7628 electronic fabric could reach 8 yuan per meter. 1) From the weaving machine perspective, CITIC SEC calculates the investment return rates for low-dielectric first-generation/second-generation and low-expansion/Q fabric at 189%/578%/1500% respectively. When the price of 7628 electronic fabric is 4/6/8 yuan per meter, the corresponding investment return rates are 60%/180%/300%. 2) From the production line construction perspective, the investment return rates for low-dielectric first-generation/second-generation and low-expansion/Q fabric are 19%/75%/144% respectively. When the price of 7628 electronic fabric is 4/6/8 yuan per meter, the investment return rates are 11%/32%/54%. Similar to the memory super cycle, this electronic fabric cycle may be more intense. The upward logic of the current memory cycle (Q2 2025 to mid-November) is driven by optimized supply and AI demand. Memory manufacturers are focusing on high-margin products, compressing the supply of mainstream memory, leading to rapid price increases and greater price elasticity. According to Bloomberg, the maximum spot price increase for mainstream DRAM/NAND chips reached 223%, lasting 12 to 18 months. Using memory as a reference, the current electronic fabric demand cycle is primarily driven by AI demand, possessing stronger growth and sustainability, with AI requiring more specialty electronic fabric. Under a super cycle, CITIC SEC believes 7628 electronic fabric is also poised to reach new price highs. The tight supply and demand for specialty electronic fabric continues to claim weaving machine capacity. Given the sustained rapid growth in AI demand, a 100% increase in demand for specialty fabric is forecasted for 2026. Due to bottlenecks in Toyota weaving machine capacity, a supply shortage for specialty electronic fabric is expected to persist in 2026. Driven by marginal profits, companies have a strong incentive to continue shifting production to specialty fabrics. According to Taishin Financial, on February 10, 2026, Taiyo Technology indicated that major glass fabric manufacturers in Taiwan have successively halted production of E-glass fabric and shifted to Low-Dk glass fabric, validating the logic of tight supply and demand for specialty electronic fabric and the ongoing competition for weaving machine capacity.

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