Abstract

Monarch Casino & Resort will report its fourth-quarter results on February 04, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates last quarter’s metrics and current-quarter forecasts to frame revenue, margin, and EPS expectations alongside recently observed institutional sentiment.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, Monarch Casino & Resort’s internal forecast indicates revenue of $139.28 million, EBIT of $32.63 million, and EPS of $1.37, with revenue projected to rise 7.93% year over year and EPS expected to grow 23.71% year over year. Margin commentary implied by the forecasted mix suggests a continuation of mid-50s gross margin and low-20s net margin if operational leverage holds; however, no explicit gross margin or net margin guidance was provided. The company’s main business remains casino operations anchored by its Reno and Black Hawk properties, with casino revenue at $80.13 million last quarter, supported by food and beverage at $33.84 million and hotel at $22.49 million. The most promising segment is casino gaming, given its scale and recent quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 16.91%; casino contributed $80.13 million last quarter, while food and beverage and hotel generated $33.84 million and $22.49 million respectively.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Monarch Casino & Resort posted total revenue of $142.81 million, a gross profit margin of 56.21%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $31.58 million, a net profit margin of 22.11%, and adjusted EPS of $1.69, with revenue growing 3.58% year over year and EPS increasing 14.97% year over year. A key highlight was resilient profitability: net profit rose 16.91% quarter over quarter, supported by disciplined cost control and favorable gaming mix, which maintained gross margins above 56.00%. Main business revenue was driven by casino at $80.13 million, food and beverage at $33.84 million, hotel at $22.49 million, and other services at $6.35 million; casino remained the core driver with stable contributions, while F&B and hotel provided complementary growth.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Casino Operations

The casino segment underpins quarterly performance, with last quarter’s $80.13 million revenue base and consistent contribution from slots and tables at both Reno and Black Hawk. For the quarter ending February 04, 2026, the forecasted company-level revenue of $139.28 million implies solid visitation and play intensity, which should keep the mix favorable to the higher-margin casino business. Seasonal patterns around the holiday period often lift foot traffic; management’s implied operating leverage in the EBIT forecast supports continued margin resilience if hold rates remain within historical ranges. The key variable this quarter will be the balance between promotional spending and gaming volumes; maintaining disciplined offers while sustaining VIP and mass-market activity can preserve the low-20s net margin signaled last quarter.

Most Promising Business: Food & Beverage

Food and beverage delivered $33.84 million last quarter and benefits from cross-sell with the gaming floor and hotel occupancy. In the current quarter, F&B has potential to expand both ticket size and frequency, leveraging holiday and event-driven traffic, which often boosts restaurant and bar sales. Upside comes from menu optimization and pricing that protect margins against commodity cost variability. If F&B growth outpaces casino on a percentage basis, the blended gross margin can remain near the mid-50s range, as F&B operations at Monarch’s properties are positioned to capture ancillary spend without incurring outsized promotional costs.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s near-term movement will be shaped by three operational levers: realized revenue versus the $139.28 million estimate, conversion of revenue into EBIT at or above $32.63 million, and EPS delivery relative to the $1.37 forecast. Delivering EPS growth of 23.71% year over year would indicate strong operating leverage, especially if property-level margins hold despite any wage or utilities inflation. Investor attention will also center on quarter-on-quarter net profit momentum, which last quarter accelerated 16.91%; repeating or extending that trend would reinforce confidence in the earnings trajectory. Any deviation in gross margin from the prior 56.21% or net margin from 22.11% will be scrutinized for signals on promotional intensity, gaming mix, and non-gaming cost pressures.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional commentary gathered in recent months has leaned cautiously positive, emphasizing steady visitation and disciplined cost management as supports for the forecasted EPS of $1.37 and EBIT of $32.63 million. The majority view expects Monarch Casino & Resort to meet or modestly exceed its revenue estimate of $139.28 million, citing stable performance at Reno and Black Hawk and a pricing environment that maintains healthy margins. Analysts point to consistent cash generation, the low-20s net margin baseline, and measured capital allocation as reasons to anticipate balanced upside, while noting that any unexpected softness in table drop or slot win could cap gains. Overall, the consensus bias is favorable to an in-line or slight beat scenario, with attention focused on whether EPS growth near 23.71% year over year can be sustained without incremental promotional spend.