Three quarters have already passed in 2026, and the global landscape continues to shift dramatically. The key developments affecting global macro assets can be broadly categorized into four dimensions: (1) The US-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered a significant energy crisis with far-reaching consequences. Global oil inventories remain tight, and widespread diesel shortages have emerged. Amid high inflation, the US initiated a rate hike cycle in September, keeping gold under persistent pressure throughout the year. The chemical sector has experienced substantial supply-demand contraction due to feedstock shortages and elevated prices. Global fertilizer costs have surged, driving up agricultural expenses, while sulfur prices have soared past 10,000 yuan per ton, disrupting other industrial sectors.

(2) A confluence of factors including high US debt, elevated inflation, midterm elections, and tariff policies has created a complex environment. The US is repeatedly forced to make difficult trade-offs among interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, leaving limited room for policy maneuvering. Consequently, macro assets are prone to sudden reversals or deviations, amplifying volatility while reducing certainty.

(3) The AI narrative competition between China and the US is providing support to the American economy and underpinning demand for computing metals such as copper.

(4) El Niño has become a high-probability event, with capital increasingly betting on agricultural commodities. These dimensions are not independent; they exhibit strong interconnections that collectively influence this year's macro assets, including commodity markets.

We have compiled an assessment of 2026 commodity supply-demand conditions and compared it with projections from the year-end 2025 report. The following key points emerge: (1) Against the backdrop of the US-Iran war, the ongoing Strait issue remains unresolved, and the negative feedback from the energy crisis on demand has become widespread. This is especially evident in the energy and chemical sectors, where demand growth rates have turned negative overall. For instance, asphalt has seen its supply-demand growth rate decline by more than 30% year-on-year.

(2) The pace of capacity elimination in China's traditionally oversupplied industries remains slow. The real estate-related black metals chain, including steel, glass-soda ash, and PVC, along with new capacity-heavy products like caustic soda, continues to face unresolved supply-demand divergences, resulting in weak price performance.

(3) Although significant capital is being deployed on El Niño expectations, the impact on China's commodity markets has been muted so far. From a supply growth perspective, import pressure remains substantial.

Table 1: 2026 Commodity Supply-Demand Growth Rates. Source: Year-on-year data, Zijing Tianfeng Futures Research Institute; Q1 and Q2 are actuals, Q3E and Q4E are estimates.

Table 2: 2026 Commodity Supply-Demand Growth Differential Heatmap. Source: Color value = Supply YoY - Demand YoY. Blue indicates relatively faster demand growth (smaller demand loss), red indicates faster supply growth (smaller supply loss); Q3E/Q4E are forecasts. Zijing Tianfeng Futures Research Institute.

Table 3: 2026 Q4 Estimated Supply-Demand Quadrant Analysis.

Table 4: Top 12 Commodities by QE Supply-Demand Growth Differential. Source: Zijing Tianfeng Futures Research Institute.