Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the robust consumption during the Spring Festival holiday primarily stemmed from the rapid fading of the post-pandemic "scar effect," which has driven a restructuring of consumption preferences and methods. The "unusual" aspects of holiday consumption result from three major shifts—in travel modes, information dissemination, and supply—and also reflect the ongoing optimization of the consumption structure. International experience indicates that during the latter half of a real estate market adjustment, consumption propensity tends to trend upward first. China may currently be at the starting point of a "U-shaped" reversal. Both the stage of economic development and mid-level social trends suggest that the potential for service consumption release has opened up, with promising prospects. Since the beginning of the year, policy efforts have focused on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with effectiveness gradually improving. Subsequent attention should be directed towards the macro-level unfolding of the consumption "upswing." Shenwan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:

First Question: What are the three "unusual" aspects of Spring Festival consumption? Mass travel, rising popularity of travel among seniors, and personalized consumption.

Unusual Aspect One: Mass travel. The 2026 Spring Festival holiday lasted 9 days, one day longer than the 2025 holiday, effectively releasing consumer demand. Data shows a significant increase in travel intensity, with cross-regional mobility during the holiday rising by 6.5 percentage points compared to the week before the holiday to 9.5% year-on-year. Domestic tourist visits hit a new record high, increasing by 2.9 percentage points compared to the National Day holiday in 2025 to 19%. Unlike the previous trend of crowding into famous scenic spots, many destinations reported tourist numbers increasing by over 15% year-on-year, reflecting a broad-based recovery in tourism popularity across regions.

Unusual Aspect Two: Rising popularity of travel among seniors. Travel demand during the Spring Festival holiday showed a recovery across all age groups, expanding from young and middle-aged demographics to include older adults. Data from flight and hotel bookings indicate that ticket bookings by travelers aged 60 and above increased by over 35% year-on-year, with flights to Beijing surging by 1.6 times. For scenic spot tickets, bookings by visitors over 60 rose by 40% year-on-year, with tourists from second-tier, third-tier, and lower-tier cities increasing by 34% and 33%, respectively.

Unusual Aspect Three: Personalized consumption. Consumption methods during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday featured a trend towards convenience. The proportion of self-drive travel increased by 5.6 percentage points compared to the 2025 National Day holiday to 85.4%. AI-powered orders on Fliggy surged by over 800% compared to pre-holiday levels, with ticket orders increasing more than 24-fold sequentially. Destination choices shifted from sightseeing to immersive experiences. Sales of group-buying experiences for "intangible cultural heritage + market" activities grew by 764% year-on-year during the holiday, while homestay bookings in cultural heritage towns like Jieyang, Guangdong (3.8 times) and Kaifeng, Henan (2.3 times) doubled.

Second Question: What are the "three shifts" underlying consumption logic? Restructured travel modes, upgraded information dissemination, and increased quality supply.

The robust holiday consumption is fundamentally driven by the rapid fading of the post-pandemic "scar effect," leading to a restructuring of consumption preferences and methods. The "unusual" aspects of holiday consumption result from three major shifts—in travel modes, information dissemination, and supply—and also reflect the ongoing optimization of the consumption structure.

Shift One: Increased travel enthusiasm stems from restructured travel modes, influenced by warmer weather and the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and supporting infrastructure. The average temperature during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday was 2.5°C nationwide, 3.1°C higher than the historical average for the period, significantly boosting travel willingness. Concurrently, NEVs have achieved mass adoption with notable cost advantages for travel, coupled with the coverage of highway charging stations increasing to 98%, further driving the popularity of self-drive travel. Data shows that NEVs accounted for 22% of self-drive trips during the holiday, higher than their ownership rate (12%).

Shift Two: The accelerated formation of new consumption trends like personalization is largely due to the iterative upgrade of information dissemination methods, amplifying the "media propagation effect." For example, on Xiaohongshu, travel-related notes increased by 36% year-on-year during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, making the platform a primary source for holiday travel trends. This phenomenon arises from users' increased reliance on new media platforms; in 2025, over 80% of travel-interested users on Xiaohongshu consulted the platform for tips before traveling, generating over 2.4 billion travel-related searches monthly.

Shift Three: Increased supply of quality services during the Spring Festival holiday, combined with intensified pro-consumption policies, created a significant "supply creates demand" effect. During the 2026 holiday, over 15,000 events such as folk performances and intangible cultural heritage displays were held nationwide, stimulating consumption of 5.88 billion yuan. The number of merchants participating in "Spring Festival non-stop" activities increased by 33%, corresponding to a 65% rise in sales. Many regions also pre-arranged promotional activities; for instance, Fujian launched over 4,300 cultural and tourism consumption events, while Chongqing organized more than 1,300 such activities and distributed 50 million yuan in travel subsidies.

Third Question: What potential expectation gaps might exist for the 2026 economy? Domestic demand outweighing external demand, consumption outweighing production.

International experience shows that in the latter half of a real estate adjustment, consumption propensity tends to rise trend-wise first. China may currently be at the starting point of a "U-shaped" reversal. After 2015, the impact of rising housing prices on the economy increasingly manifested as a "crowding-out effect." Currently, indicators like the national price-to-income ratio have fallen back to pre-2015 levels, significantly weakening this effect. Meanwhile, the accelerated shift between old and new growth drivers is also mitigating the economic impact of the real estate adjustment. International experience indicates that as the "crowding-out effect" weakens, improving consumption propensity leads to consumption recovery outpacing income growth. Both the stage of economic development and mid-level social trends suggest that the potential for service consumption release has opened up, with promising prospects.

International experience demonstrates that after per capita GDP exceeds $10,000, the elasticity of goods consumption tends to decrease, while the elasticity of service consumption continues to expand; typically, the share of service consumption in total consumption increases by 0.6 percentage points annually. From a mid-micro perspective, the trend towards smaller household sizes during economic development strengthens demand for enjoyment-oriented services like culture, sports, entertainment, tourism, and beauty care. China is currently experiencing a similar development trend.

Since the beginning of the year, policy deployments have focused on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with effectiveness gradually improving. Subsequent attention should be directed towards the macro-level unfolding of the consumption "upswing." In the inaugural year of the "15th Five-Year Plan," central government departments have frequently taken action to "get off to a good start," with policies concentrating on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption, such as optimizing personal consumption loan subsidies and introducing subsidies for small and micro enterprise loans. Domestic initiatives related to "investing in people" and opening up the service sector will continue to unlock service consumption potential, exemplified by the implementation of childcare subsidies. Some innovative measures, like one-time credit repair and lottery invoices, are conducive to restoring household consumption confidence.

Risk提示: Comparability deviations in international experience, unexpected changes in the real estate situation, and time lags in policy transmission.