Abstract

Blackbaud will report its fourth-quarter results on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors watching revenue momentum, margins, and EPS trends as management’s guidance and consensus expectations point to modest growth and stable profitability.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, forecasts indicate revenue of USD 292.30 million, up 3.96% year over year, EBIT of USD 85.65 million, up 3.03% year over year, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.14, up 6.82% year over year; year-over-year rates reflect management and model-based projections. The main business is expected to maintain resilient subscription momentum with retention and cross-sell supporting stable mid-to-high gross profit margins, while net profit margin is guided to sustain near recent levels as operating discipline offsets investment needs. Subscription Solutions is positioned as the most promising segment, supported by recurring revenue scale; service revenue remains a small proportion and is expected to be comparatively flat year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Blackbaud posted revenue of USD 281.14 million, gross profit margin of 59.57%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 47.49 million, net profit margin of 16.89%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.10, with year-over-year growth of 11.11% for adjusted EPS and a decline of 1.95% for revenue. A key highlight was margin execution, with EBIT of USD 83.999 million exceeding internal estimates by USD 2.42 million as disciplined expense control and cloud efficiency supported profitability. Main business highlights included Subscription Solutions revenue of USD 275.80 million and Services revenue of USD 5.34 million; subscription growth was resilient and underpinned overall performance.

Current Quarter Outlook

Subscription Solutions

Subscription Solutions remains Blackbaud’s core engine of performance and visibility this quarter, with forecasts implying revenue of USD 292.30 million for the company and a continuation of high recurring contribution from subscription products. The segment’s scale supports operating leverage in gross margin, and last quarter’s 59.57% gross profit margin sets a reference point for stability as pricing, renewals, and upsell into the existing nonprofit and social impact customer base continue. The company’s quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 82.80% last period emphasizes the effect of mix and cost containment, and investors will look for confirmation that subscription momentum can carry through seasonally strong year-end giving cycles into the new year. The mix of advanced fundraising, marketing, and grants solutions is expected to underpin renewal rates and cross-sell, suggesting balanced growth rather than outsized expansion.

Most Promising Business

The most promising business within Blackbaud’s portfolio is Subscription Solutions, given its recurring profile and overwhelming share of revenue relative to services. With USD 275.80 million in subscription revenue last quarter, the segment’s performance drives company-level outcomes and absorbs volatility elsewhere. Forecasted adjusted EPS of USD 1.14 and EBIT of USD 85.65 million are consistent with subscription-led margin resilience, as cost rationalization and cloud optimization help maintain operating efficiency. Seasonal demand patterns across the nonprofit sector, including year-end campaigns and donor engagement initiatives, provide a constructive backdrop. Key watch items include pricing power, the penetration of upgraded modules, and retention dynamics in light of budget sensitivity across customers.

Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

The stock’s reaction will be most sensitive to revenue growth traction versus the USD 292.30 million forecast, particularly any deviation in subscription momentum that signals demand shifts among nonprofit and social impact organizations. Margin commentary will be scrutinized against the recent 59.57% gross margin and 16.89% net margin to gauge sustainability, as investors weigh whether efficiency gains can offset investment needs in product innovation and go-to-market. EPS delivery relative to the USD 1.14 forecast is another focal point, as stable or improving conversion from EBIT to EPS affirms operating discipline; any updates to capital allocation plans, including share repurchases or debt management, could further color sentiment.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of recent institutional views lean constructive. Raymond James reaffirmed a Buy rating with an USD 85.00 price target, highlighting confidence in subscription durability and execution, while Stifel maintained a Hold at USD 65.00 as they monitor valuation and growth cadence; on balance, positive views predominate. The constructive camp emphasizes stable recurring revenue, improving operating metrics, and a track record of delivering or modestly exceeding EBIT and EPS expectations, which supports the case for continued margin health in the near term. Analysts anticipate management will reiterate focus on renewals, cross-sell, and disciplined cost control, with an eye on sustaining high-50s gross margins and mid-teens net margins, aligning with the preview’s baseline.