China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 33.4193 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 5.0% year-on-year increase based on constant prices, according to preliminary calculations from the National Bureau of Statistics. This growth rate accelerated by 0.5 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year. By sector, the primary industry added value of 1.1941 trillion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year; the secondary industry contributed 11.6135 trillion yuan, growing 4.9%; while the tertiary industry expanded by 5.2% to 20.6117 trillion yuan. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 1.3% in the first quarter. Retail sales of consumer goods increased 2.4% year-on-year, with domestic demand contributing 84.7% to economic growth, a near 30-percentage-point improvement from a year earlier. National fixed-asset investment grew 1.7%, while total goods imports and exports surged 15.0% year-on-year. Value-added output of major industrial enterprises climbed 6.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. High-tech manufacturing output rose 12.5%, digital product manufacturing increased 11.2%, and integrated circuit manufacturing soared 49.4%. Exports of "new three" products maintained rapid growth, while traditional industries accelerated transformation, with equipment and tool purchases investment rising over 13%. Bio-based materials and other sectors showed significantly increased contribution rates.
On the demand side, the three major drivers showed clear divergence: exports hit a new record high with 14.7% year-on-year growth, supported by recovering external demand and front-loading effects, while structure continued to optimize. Fixed-asset investment turned positive, growing 1.7% led by infrastructure, though real estate investment remains in deep adjustment. Consumption showed moderate recovery with retail sales up 2.4%, with service consumption and premium goods performing strongly, though endogenous growth momentum remains insufficient. The pattern of "stronger-than-expected external demand and structural recovery in domestic demand" served as both the driving force for the quarterly rebound and revealed underlying concerns. Looking ahead, risks include Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher, external tariff uncertainties, and domestic supply-demand imbalances. Macro policies need to shift from consolidating the strong start to stabilizing full-year performance, using domestic stability to counter external uncertainties.
The People's Bank of China issued a notice adjusting overseas loan policies for banking institutions, raising the leverage ratio for foreign-funded banks, Sino-foreign joint venture banks, and foreign bank branches in China from 0.5 to 1.5. The Export-Import Bank's leverage ratio increased from 3 to 3.5, with a minimum overseas loan ceiling of 10 billion yuan. Domestic banks can now conduct indirect foreign currency loans over one year through overseas banks according to local regulations. This policy significantly expands cross-border lending capacity for foreign and policy banks, enhancing operational flexibility. The adjustments increase available overseas credit scale, relax business constraints, and simplify indirect lending procedures to better align with international market practices. The changes will improve financial support for cross-border trade and investment, enhancing capital allocation efficiency. As institutions implement the new rules and release quota space, they will better meet financing needs for foreign trade enterprises and overseas projects, steadily improving cross-border investment and financing convenience.
In A-share markets, indices advanced with lighter turnover. Most sectors gained, led by energy metals, communication services, and metallurgical materials, while pharmaceutical commerce, aquaculture, and oil services declined. Over 4,000 stocks rose. Rising sectors were driven by new quality productive forces policies, AI computing demand, and new energy trends, aligning with economic transformation themes. Declining sectors faced industry cycles, profit pressures, and capital rotation. Short-term A-shares may maintain relatively strong volatility with ChiNext leading gains, though divergence at high levels warrants caution for corrections, with structural rotation likely dominating.
Gold prices weakened amid rising inflation expectations. U.S. private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending March 28. Federal Reserve officials noted two-sided economic risks and maintained that benchmark rates would stay unchanged for some time, with year-end inflation potentially at 3%. U.S. stocks surged on April 15, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting record highs, boosting risk appetite and pressuring gold. Short-term gold is expected to trade between $4,790-$4,840 per ounce, with direction influenced by U.S. jobless claims data.
In commodity markets, crude oil edged higher amid balanced factors. The IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast from growth of 640,000 barrels per day to a contraction of 80,000 bpd in its April 14 report, while predicting a 1.5 million bpd drop in Q2—the largest quarterly decline since 2020. However, U.S. EIA crude inventories fell by 913,000 barrels versus expectations of a 154,000-barrel increase, with gasoline and distillate stocks also declining significantly. Geopolitical tensions intensified as the U.S. planned to deploy additional troops to the Middle East and considered further strikes against Iran. WTI crude is trading between $90.5-$92 per barrel, with Brent at $91.5-$92.5, with future movements dependent on risk premiums from conflicts and macro policy tightening.
According to bond market risk monitoring data, among 17,177 enterprises tracked on April 16, one company was downgraded from yellow to green alert, while four new companies were added to green alert status.
Additional economic indicators show foreign exchange market turnover reached $4.4 trillion in March 2026, up 16% year-on-year. Non-bank sector cross-border payments totaled $1.7 trillion, growing 26%, with a net outflow of $32.1 billion. Cross-border securities investment showed fluctuations but stabilized in April.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment established an ecological security research center to advance interdisciplinary integration in ecological space, ecosystems, human settlements, resource development, natural disasters, and global ecological challenges.
Shanghai's development reform commission solicited opinions on a special fund management method for energy conservation and carbon reduction, focusing on key sectors including energy, industry, transportation, and construction.
Wuhan proposed measures to promote cross-border trade facilitation, including creating green, low-carbon ports and accelerating new energy vessel and truck applications.
Fujian's development reform commission clarified carbon emission trading service fee standards, setting maximum rates of 6% for certain transaction methods and 1.5% for others.
The central bank conducted a 5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, fully offsetting maturing amounts. Treasury futures fell slightly.
As of end-March 2026, overseas institutions held 3.19 trillion yuan of interbank market bonds, accounting for 1.8% of the total. Holdings included 1.95 trillion yuan in government bonds (61.1%), 770 billion yuan in policy financial bonds (24.1%), and 330 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit (10.3%).
National real estate development investment fell 11.2% year-on-year in January-March, with residential investment down 11.0%. Among 70 major cities, first-tier city new home prices rose monthly in March, while second and third-tier cities saw narrowing declines.
Intellectual property product investment averaged over 9% growth from 2023-2025, exceeding 6.9 trillion yuan in 2025. Q1 2026 growth reached 7.9%, accounting for over 12% of total investment.
China's express development index rose 2.4% year-on-year in March to 410.9, with average daily volume exceeding 550 million parcels.
The national data bureau proposed advancing high-quality industry dataset construction, emphasizing data resource inventories and application scenarios.
The State Council issued guidelines deepening investment approval system reforms, introducing lifelong responsibility mechanisms for government project decisions.
Financial regulators urged banks to enhance rural revitalization support through agricultural supply chain finance and inclusive loan policies.
Internationally, UK GDP grew 0.5% month-on-month in February 2026, the fastest since June 2023. China's U.S. Treasury holdings decreased by $1.1 billion to $693.3 billion in February, while Japan and UK increased holdings. The Fed's Beige Book noted slight economic growth with stable employment, though energy price spikes from U.S.-Iran conflicts significantly impacted the economy. The International Organization for Standardization released ISO 14001:2026, the first major update since 2015, emphasizing lifecycle management and extended environmental responsibility across value chains.