Goldman Sachs issued a research report anticipating that BUD APAC will announce its first-quarter results on May 5. The firm forecasts that the group will achieve 1.5% organic revenue growth in the first quarter, while normalized EBITDA is expected to decline 11% year-over-year on an organic, constant currency basis. In U.S. dollar terms, reported net profit for the first quarter is projected to be $193 million, down from $234 million in the same period last year.

Goldman Sachs has slightly raised its target price for BUD APAC from HK$8.40 to HK$8.50, implying a projected 2028 price-to-earnings ratio of 19 times, and reiterated a "Buy" rating.

In the Chinese market, the report expects the decline in first-quarter sales volume to narrow sequentially, with growth turning positive in March. This improvement is attributed to active channel destocking and preparations for the peak season, alongside relatively warm weather in southern China. However, due to promotional activities and shifts in channel structure, average selling prices are still expected to show a year-over-year decline, though the rate of decline has moderated compared to the second half of last year.

Gross margin is being impacted by volume leverage but is partially offset by efficiency improvements. EBITDA faces significant downward pressure, primarily due to increased commercial investments related to the Lunar New Year holiday, the Winter Olympics, and the launch of the Harbin Beer brand, as well as lower other operating income, such as refundable container revenue.

The report anticipates continued robust growth in BUD APAC’s Indian market, while the South Korean market faces its toughest volume comparison base of the year. At the group level, weak shipment performance in South Korea and soft sales volume in China are expected to be partly offset by strong growth in India.

Goldman Sachs has kept its net profit forecasts for BUD APAC largely unchanged for 2026 and 2027, while raising its 2028 net profit forecast by 1.1%.