The equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are continuing to climb, with projections indicating a peak around November to December. This trajectory is expected to produce a super El Ni帽o event that could likely rank as the strongest on record. Since the start of this summer, China's climate patterns have shown the typical influences of the El Ni帽o development phase, including two distinct rain belts across the eastern region, widespread and intense rainstorms with overlapping impact zones leading to compound disasters, as well as active and powerful typhoons with prolonged wind and rainfall effects.

The equatorial central and eastern Pacific has been in an El Ni帽o state since May 2026, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly. The monitoring index for the region reached 2.09掳C in July, up 0.49掳C from June, and further surged to 2.64掳C by mid-August, reflecting an exceptionally fast warming pace.

According to the national standard for identifying El Ni帽o and La Ni帽a events, an El Ni帽o event is confirmed when the three-month moving average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific reaches or exceeds 0.5掳C for at least five consecutive months. A super event is classified when the peak intensity reaches or surpasses 2.5掳C. It is important to note that while the mid-August index has already exceeded the 2.5掳C threshold, the three-month moving average has not yet crossed the super event level, meaning a formal super El Ni帽o event has not been officially declared.

Projections indicate that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise with fluctuations, reaching their peak around November to December. Given the current clear warming trend, the three-month moving average peak is likely to surpass the 2.5掳C threshold, resulting in a super El Ni帽o event. Its intensity could exceed the three previous super events on record, potentially making it the strongest ever observed. This event is characterized by rapid development, high intensity, and significant climate impacts.

The climate anomalies experienced in China this summer are largely attributable to the fast-developing El Ni帽o. The western North Pacific subtropical high and monsoon trough have shifted further north and strengthened, while frequent cold vortex intrusions from higher latitudes have contributed to two concentrated rain centers in the north and south. With a stronger summer monsoon, typhoons in the northwestern Pacific and South China Sea have become more numerous and intense, leading to above-average rainfall in southern China and the lower Yangtze River region. Meanwhile, persistent rain in northern China and the northeast has been driven by interactions between the northward-shifted subtropical high and cold vortices, as well as long-distance moisture transport from typhoons, resulting in successive strong winds and heavy rainfall.

During the autumn of an El Ni帽o development year, precipitation typically increases in the central and southern parts of eastern China, central and southern parts of central China, northern South China, and eastern parts of southwest China, while decreasing in northern central China and parts of the northwest. Temperatures are generally above average across most of the country, with notable warmth in most of eastern and central China, eastern parts of southwest China, and Xinjiang. As El Ni帽o continues to develop rapidly and its impacts tend to lag, the National Climate Center will intensify monitoring and forecasting efforts to closely track its evolution and effects on China's climate.