On Wednesday, April 10th, early morning optimism surged in the markets following an announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Asian equities experienced significant gains, while crude oil prices opened sharply lower, dropping over 10%. Gold and silver initially rallied strongly, gaining over 100 points.
However, the situation deteriorated rapidly. The primary reason was that the ceasefire agreement was limited to the US and Iran, with Israel not participating. Furthermore, Israel intensified its military strikes against Lebanon. Concurrently, it was stated that US forces would remain deployed in and around Iran until Tehran fully complies with the agreed terms, with a warning that any violation would trigger a more severe military response.
This development cast significant doubt on the newly established ceasefire, directly suppressing the earlier market optimism. The US Dollar Index subsequently climbed steadily. Following this, the gold price retreated from its intraday high near 4850, erasing all its gains and ultimately settling near its opening level, forming a high inverted-T candlestick pattern. The subsequent price action fell far short of optimistic market expectations, leading the gold price to essentially return to its levels from the beginning of the week.
From a technical perspective, gold opened near 4722 yesterday before experiencing a slight pullback. It found support after testing the 4699 level, where it began to stabilize. As the European trading session commenced, buying interest emerged at lower levels, allowing the price to begin a gradual, oscillating recovery. The rebound, which was measured and not overly aggressive, saw gold reclaim lost ground, advancing nearly 100 points. However, after touching a key short-term resistance level near 4801 in the early morning hours, the price entered a phase of oscillation and decline until the market close. Overall, the battle between bulls and bears was evenly matched. The current chart pattern suggests a consolidation within a range. Yesterday's price action, which was characterized by an initial decline followed by a recovery and stabilization after a deeper drop, indicates that downward momentum is waning while bulls are defending key support levels. The short-term directional bias remains contingent on further market cues.
Regarding today's trading strategy, the short-term approach is to wait for a retest of the support zone around the 4720-4700 level. Upon signs of stabilization, a gradual, oscillating upward move is anticipated. The broader view is to assess whether the pattern of an initial dip followed by a recovery will repeat. Short-term focus should be on two key aspects. If the price can maintain above the 4700-4680 support zone during subsequent oscillations, the dominant strategy would be to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, with an upside target towards the 4780-4800 resistance area. Conversely, if the market experiences a rapid, one-sided decline towards the 4650-4680 zone, a strategy of buying on dips after the market stabilizes would still be considered a favorable opportunity. The probability of a sharp decline during the daytime session today appears very low. The primary focus will shift to whether unexpected developments later in the evening session might trigger anomalous, one-sided volatility in the gold price.
Key intraday trading levels: Consider分批布局多单 (staggered long positions) on a pullback into the 4700-4720 range, targeting a move towards the 4780-4800 area. If the price retraces further to the 4680-4690 vicinity, adding to long positions could be considered. A stop-loss can be placed temporarily below 4670. The underlying logic for a short-term gold price increase remains relatively sound; therefore, long positions require patience to hold through the anticipated upward movement.