期权聚焦 | MRVL现超65万美元远月虚值CALL大单,机构押注股价继续上行

期权女巫
Jul 02

Marvell Technology收报272.05美元,跌8.67%。尽管股价出现回调,但期权市场却出现显著看涨信号,一笔规模超65万美元的远月虚值看涨期权大单尤为引人注目,显示出有资金正押注股价后续的强势反弹。

期权指标分析

MRVL当前隐含波动率(IV)为98.22%,IV百分位为88.84%,处于较高区间,说明当前期权隐含波动率水平偏高、定价相对偏贵;同时IV/HV比率为0.80,表明隐含波动率相对历史波动率并未出现明显过度溢价,整体反映出市场对后续波动已有较强预期。Call/Put成交量比为1.33。

大单交易

一笔规模达65.81万美元的CALL买入成为当日最突出的单腿大单,资金直接买入2026-07-10到期的320.0行权价看涨期权,共1371张。以当前股价272.05美元来看,这是一笔虚值看涨仓位,说明买方并非做防守,而是在用相对明确的权利金成本押注后续股价继续上行。这类远高于现价的虚值CALL买入,通常体现出较强的进攻性预期,既反映出对中短期上涨空间的乐观判断,也意味着交易者愿意承担权利金全部损失的风险去博取更高弹性回报,整体属于典型的偏多方向押注。

全量大单情绪明显偏多,看多合计106.63万美元,看空合计0.00万美元,净差106.63万美元,方向判断为明确偏多。结合大单结构看,资金没有出现与之对冲的看空仓位,核心成交集中在看涨期权买入,同时还有偏多组合参与,说明市场资金在MRVL上的态度并非中性试探,而是以进攻型布局为主。整体来看,大单交易传递出的信号是短线至中期情绪乐观,资金更倾向于押注股价继续走强。

策略参考

鉴于当前隐含波动率偏高且市场情绪偏多,对于希望收取权利金的卖方而言,可选择行权价远高于现价的虚值看涨期权(OTM CALL),其被行权的概率相对较低;若不愿承担过多的保证金风险,则可考虑构建价差策略,如牛市看涨价差组合,以锁定风险并参与上涨行情。

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