Abstract

GFL Environmental Holdings Inc. will report fiscal results on February 11, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS, highlights performance drivers and risks for the current quarter, and synthesizes prevailing institutional views published between August 04, 2025 and February 04, 2026.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s guidance framework and third-party consensus embedded in the forecast dataset, GFL Environmental Holdings Inc. is projected to deliver current-quarter revenue of $1.67 billion, down 15.93% year over year, with EBIT estimated at $145.63 million (down 11.32% year over year) and EPS of $0.20 (down 4.51% year over year). Margins are anticipated to soften modestly year over year; adjusted EPS is expected to reflect resilient pricing but a less favorable revenue mix.

Management’s main business focus remains Solid Waste, with the segment continuing to anchor group performance through pricing and route density gains, and near-term outlook tied to contract repricing and volume stabilization. The most promising business driver continues to be Solid Waste due to its scale and pricing leverage, supported by cross-selling and tuck-in acquisitions; last quarter, Solid Waste revenue was $1.69 billion, with year-over-year change implied negative in line with the total revenue trend.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, GFL Environmental Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $1.69 billion, a gross profit margin of 22.03%, net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.11 billion, a net profit margin of 6.75%, and adjusted EPS of $0.23, with year-over-year declines across revenue and EPS. A notable highlight was disciplined cost execution that preserved gross margin stability despite softer revenue, aided by network efficiencies and pricing actions. The main business remained Solid Waste, generating $1.69 billion in revenue in the quarter; segment performance reflected a broader market slowdown, implying a year-over-year decline consistent with consolidated trends.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Solid Waste revenue and margin cadence

GFL Environmental Holdings Inc.’s Solid Waste franchise underpins the quarter’s outcome, with forecast revenue of $1.67 billion implying a year-over-year decrease of 15.93%. The quarter’s EBIT estimate of $145.63 million and EPS of $0.20 align with a setup where price remains positive but volumes are pressured by muted construction and industrial activity. Margin cadence is expected to reflect a trade-off between inflation pass-through in contract renewals and a less favorable mix, with recycling commodity prices and transfer/landfill throughput acting as incremental swing factors. Management’s execution on route optimization, fleet maintenance scheduling, and labor productivity is likely to be central for sustaining gross profit margin near recent levels. With net profit margin last quarter at 6.75%, a slight compression would not be surprising if price/mix fails to offset fixed-cost absorption. Investors should monitor sequential movements in disposal yields and the pace of municipal contract repricing for read-throughs to the next quarter.

Most promising business driver within Solid Waste

Within Solid Waste, municipal and commercial collection contracts with embedded CPI-linked escalators provide a clearer path to earnings durability compared with cyclical roll-off and construction-driven volumes. The company’s playbook of tuck-in acquisitions typically brings route density synergies within 12–18 months; these synergies can support EBIT even in a softer volume setting. The current-quarter EBIT forecast down 11.32% year over year suggests synergies and pricing partially offset the revenue drag. Landfill and transfer infrastructure also provides strategic pricing power; even modest increases in disposal rates can magnify profitability given operating leverage. Provided that weather disruptions are limited during the quarter, throughput stability could help maintain gross margin closer to the 22.03% level reported last quarter. A modest recovery in recyclable commodity pricing would be an incremental positive for margin hold.

Stock price swing factors this quarter

Three variables appear most likely to influence the stock around the print. First, the revenue trajectory versus the $1.67 billion estimate will set the tone; a narrow miss or beat can translate into outsized share moves if accompanied by margin surprises, given sensitivity around EBIT at $145.63 million. Second, updates on pricing realization and the mix of CPI-based escalators versus competitive repricing will shape how investors model gross and net margins into the next fiscal period. Third, commentary on capital allocation—pace of tuck-in M&A, deleveraging progress, and free cash flow conversion—will be pivotal for the equity story, because it influences both growth visibility and balance sheet flexibility. If management signals stronger-than-expected route density gains or better landfill pricing, consensus EPS of $0.20 could have upside. Conversely, a weaker construction and industrial backdrop or adverse weather-related service interruptions could cause volume deleverage and pressure margins. Investors will also parse for color on commodity exposure in recycling to triangulate the durability of any margin hold.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate the institutional commentary gathered in the past six months. Notably, Wells Fargo assigned a Buy rating with a target price of C$68.00, highlighting the company’s execution and consolidation runway. UBS maintained a Buy rating with a $60.00 target, citing growth potential and a disciplined M&A strategy that can bolster route density and margin capture. Citi reiterated a Buy rating with a $61.00 target, emphasizing pricing resilience and integration benefits in the core Solid Waste business. The ratio of bullish to bearish opinions in the collected sample is 3:0, indicating a clear bullish skew among covering institutions. The majority view expects GFL Environmental Holdings Inc. to navigate near-term volume softness through price realization, synergy capture from tuck-in acquisitions, and steady landfill pricing, with EBIT and EPS tracking near forecasts despite revenue contraction. Analysts point to potential upside if the company demonstrates stronger pricing carryover or outlines a clearer deleveraging path that supports incremental M&A without diluting free cash flow progress. Given the forecast setup—revenue at $1.67 billion, EBIT at $145.63 million, and EPS at $0.20—sell-side commentary frames the risk-reward as constructive into the print, conditioned on confirmatory margin commentary and capital allocation discipline.