【1】Market Performance: The BU main contract 2601 fluctuated below the 3000-point level, hitting an intraday low of 2975 before closing at 2990, down 0.2% for the day and 2.2% cumulatively over the past seven days. The next-month contract 2602 also fell 0.2%, maintaining a Contango structure with near-term contracts priced lower than deferred ones.

【2】Spot Market: ① Shandong heavy-duty bitumen spot price stood at 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.3% day-on-day and 1.7% over seven days. The Shandong basis was -10 yuan/ton, widening by 18 yuan/ton in a week. ② East China heavy-duty bitumen traded at 3,190 yuan/ton, down 1.5% daily, with the basis at 200 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton weekly).

【3】Crack Spread: ① The BU-Brent spread recorded -307 yuan/ton (+39 yuan/ton weekly). While BU fell 0.2%, Brent rose 2.0% (based on 3 PM closing). Oil prices rallied with broader commodities as risk appetite improved, though Ukraine-Russia negotiation uncertainties persist. Weak bitumen fundamentals and lack of cost support make it challenging to hedge against oil volatility—crack spreads warrant caution.

【4】Fundamentals: Diluted bitumen discounts widened to -$11.63/bbl (vs. -$11.28/bbl previously), signaling ample overseas supply. The market remains lackluster, with focus on potential Ukraine peace talks—any agreement could pressure oil and drag bitumen lower. Reports of Xinjiang refineries offering winter storage contracts boosted trader interest, but spot prices below 3,000 yuan/ton and continued declines fuel bearish sentiment. Winter storage trends require monitoring.

【5】Short-Term Outlook: Fundamentals stay weak amid soft demand and inventory pressure. OPEC+ output hikes may further weigh on oil prices, likely pulling bitumen lower. Technically, prices hover near lows, expected to range between 3,010-3,100 yuan/ton.

【6】Strategy: ① Maintain bearish range-trading stance; ② Sell 2601 put options.