今春招聘活动的重新加速，为那些忧心通胀、担心利率过低难以遏制新价格压力的美联储官员提供了更多论据。
近期已有部分官员暗示，美联储应做好今年晚些时候加息的准备，至少应收回去年下半年实施的三次25基点降息中的部分幅度。彼时的降息旨在稳定就业市场，而当前劳动力市场的健康状况已远胜当时。
这份报告虽不会一劳永逸地解决关于美联储应在多大程度上倾向今年加息的政策争论，但它确实凸显出短期内降息的可能性已彻底消失。
对加息持怀疑态度的官员或将指出，劳动力市场并未显现出明显的价格压力迹象。然而，若失业率从5月持稳的4.3%水平进一步下降，这一论点将难以立足。
当前支持加息的有力论据实则源于通胀前景。多重冲击——人工智能建设热潮、关税政策及能源问题——正持续推高物价，使其远高于美联储2%的目标水平，即便霍尔木兹海峡商业航运有望逐步恢复。若美联储在通胀攀升时按兵不动，经通胀调整后的实际利率将会下降。这种动态机制可能促使加息议题重回议程，即便劳动力市场未显现过热迹象。
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