随着美伊达成为期两周的停火协议，投资者正重新押注美联储可能在今年实施降息。
根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的数据，市场目前预计美联储在12月前至少降息一次的概率已升至43%，较一天前的14%大幅跃升。自中东冲突爆发以来，市场对美联储政策的预期剧烈波动——投资者从年初预测的多次降息，一度转向消化加息可能性。
尽管市场现已完全排除加息预期，但投资者并未回归到战前预期的多次降息轨道。停火协议仍存在高度不确定性，且霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后，全球油气市场的供应僵局可能需数月才能缓解。这意味着未来几个月能源价格持续高企的局面或将继续推高通胀水平。
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