The market experienced overall volatility today (December 30), with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 10-day winning streak of positive closes, while the total trading volume for the two markets reached 2.14 trillion yuan. However, today's positive candlestick was a deceptive one; the index itself fell just short of closing in the green, failing to register an actual gain. The longest such winning streak in A-share history occurred in January 2018, when the Shanghai Composite Index recorded 11 consecutive positive closes, each one a genuine, solid advance.
Regarding today's market activity, some might suspect intervention from above. In truth, many people habitually believe in two things: First, they believe in an invisible hand capable of steering the market. In reality, precise short-term control like this is nearly impossible; a single misplaced order by anyone can trigger subsequent fluctuations. It's similar to how housing prices kept rising in the past, with numerous regulatory policies failing to curb them; or how the stock market performed poorly two years ago, with many rescue measures unable to prop it up. Therefore, in the short term, there is no omnipotent guiding hand. Second, some always put their faith in prophets who can predict the market's subsequent rises and falls, but such individuals do not truly exist. The short-to-medium-term trajectory of the market is inherently unpredictable. Thus, the essence of investing lies in constructing a portfolio and achieving goals by observing the odds and engaging in strategic plays. Ultimately, we should adhere to our own investment discipline, focusing on "good companies at good prices," and take calculated risks when favorable technical patterns emerge. Correspondingly, we must wait when necessary, accept profits when they come, and bear losses when they occur. Through accumulation, we can ultimately achieve relatively favorable investment outcomes. Since the major indices I monitor entered a bull trend, I have continuously introduced several sectors worthy of attention. Today, the focus is on the FinTech ETF. As the name implies, the ETF's constituent stocks are technology companies偏向金融 sector, covering concepts such as online brokerages, financial IT, the digital yuan, and AI applications. From the index's structure, ChiNext component stocks hold a weight exceeding 59%; in terms of market capitalization, the average market cap of constituents is 25.6 billion yuan, with stocks under 10 billion yuan accounting for over 49% of the weight, highlighting its small-cap characteristics. Combining these two features, the index exhibits strong elasticity. Under the current market conditions, online brokerages still have room for earnings释放, and the integration of large AI models has also enriched the application scenarios for financial IT. The corresponding index product is the FinTech ETF (159851), with its off-exchange feeder fund codes: Class A 013477; Class C 013478. Its liquidity leads among similar ETFs, and its size is approaching 100 billion yuan, making it one to watch. The current market is operating within a bull trend, so there's no need for excessive worry. Any pullbacks could be viewed as opportunities to add positions. Updates on the market situation, including noteworthy sectors and indices, will be shared after the New Year's Day holiday.
On the news front: 1. Meta spent billions of dollars to formally acquire the AI startup Manus, with its founder, Xiao Hong, appointed as a Vice President at Meta. This acquisition ranks as Meta's third-largest since its founding, costing less only than the acquisitions of WhatsApp and Scale AI. Manus primarily focuses on developing general-purpose AI agents, differing somewhat from the conversational large language models like Doubao or ChatGPT that we commonly use. Manus is positioned as an Agent, aiming to deliver outcomes for users. For instance, if I need to travel to Shenzhen on business and want to create a travel plan, I could ask Doubao to check the weather, round-trip flights, and hotels in Shenzhen for the coming days, and then use that information to make my own plan. But if using Manus, I could state my request and have it directly prepare the travel arrangements. It acts more like an assistant, comprehensively comparing information and automatically booking hotels, flights, and other itinerary items, reducing manual steps. Due to its outstanding capability in handling complex tasks, Manus, which only launched in March of this year, has already achieved an annualized revenue exceeding $125 million. Furthermore, the Manus startup team comprises just over a hundred people, without overseas study or major tech company backgrounds. After the acquisition by Meta, the original team will be retained, continuing to offer their existing services, but it is certain that Manus's technology will be integrated into Meta's own products. This acquisition serves as a typical case of "Chinese technology, global operation," symbolizing a world-class major breakthrough achieved by Chinese tech entrepreneurs.
2. The onshore yuan (CNY) broke through the 7-per-dollar level, reaching its highest level since May 2023. The offshore yuan (CNH) had already broken through 7 a few days ago, and today the onshore yuan followed suit. Although both represent the yuan against the US dollar, their exchange rate formation mechanisms differ. The onshore yuan (CNY) is traded only within mainland China, while the offshore yuan (CNH) rate is determined by market supply and demand; consequently, the onshore rate more closely reflects the stance of authorities. However, the spread between the two generally does not become too large, otherwise it would create possibilities for "arbitrage."
3. The robotics sector surged today, primarily linked to two pieces of news. First, the Trump administration is considering issuing an executive order related to robotics in 2026. Second, Tesla's robot is nearing final supplier selection, with rumors suggesting a recent batch of component suppliers visited North America and have a chance of securing orders, leading the market to preemptively heat up.
4. Last night, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) released two announcements: It is introducing three major state-backed fund shareholders, increasing the registered capital of SMIC South from $6.5 billion to $10.0773 billion. The company plans to issue shares to five shareholders of SMIC North, including the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, to acquire their 49% equity stake in SMIC North, with a transaction price of 40.601 billion yuan. The capital increase will help lower the asset-liability ratio of SMIC South; SMIC North reported 2024 revenue of 12.98 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.68 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of approximately 13%. Consolidation will enhance the listed company's profits. Boosted by these positive developments, SMIC's stock price rose today, subsequently driving the semiconductor sector higher.
5. Two government departments issued a value-added tax policy for individuals selling residential properties: Individuals selling homes they have owned for less than 2 years will pay VAT at a 3% levy rate on the full sales amount; individuals selling homes they have owned for 2 years or more are exempt from VAT. The announcement takes effect on January 1, 2026. For VAT on home sales by individuals that has not been declared and paid before January 1, 2026, if it conforms to the announcement's stipulations, it can be handled according to the announcement.
Overall market rating: 8.5 points, situated within a bull trend. The rating scale is 4-9 points. A minimum of 4 points indicates short-term oversold conditions, while a maximum of 9 points indicates short-term overbought conditions; below 6 points generally suggests a bear market, above 8 points generally suggests a bull market. Stage's strongest indices: CSI 2000, Shanghai Composite Index. This indicates the direction of market style. If it shows "None" or only one index, it is suggested to take a break for the short-to-medium term.
Finally, today I came across an interesting chart from Guolian Minsheng Securities. They found that the core determinant of the consumption rate is not income, but rather a sense of "security" and expectations. Combining 2024 per capita disposable income data, provincial consumption patterns can be divided into four typical types: Provinces like Heilongjiang and Jilin, despite relatively lower incomes, exhibit a willingness to consume. This is mainly because their economies are dominated by state-owned enterprises and resource-based industries, leading to relatively stable incomes and lower costs for healthcare and elderly care. Such a "safety-net" social structure reduces family concerns; coupled with limited property appreciation potential and fewer investment channels, there's less incentive to save over spending in the present. Provinces like Henan and Anhui represent the low-income, consumption-averse type. Due to unstable income sources and significant self-responsibility for education, healthcare, and elderly care, consumption is more cautious. Provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong, with developed private economies, fall into the high-income, high-consumption category. With ample cash flow, the need for precautionary savings diminishes. Influenced by consumption cultures that view "spending as investment" or "spending to buy time/experiences," they are more inclined to enjoy life. Finally, there are regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Jiangsu, which combine high incomes with low consumption rates. People in these areas are generally constrained by mortgage leverage and intense competition in work and education; family wealth is predominantly tied up in real estate and equity, making them "asset-rich" but "cash-poor," leading to reluctance in casual spending. This illustrates that the key to stimulating domestic demand circulation lies not in subsidies, but in reducing future uncertainties and alleviating family risk burdens. Perfecting the social security system to empower people to spend confidently is the foundation of the domestic circulation.
MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well!