Recently, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations against imported pork and pork by-products originating from the European Union. The investigation authority preliminarily determined that imported pork and pork by-products from the EU constitute dumping, causing substantial damage to domestic industry, with a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage. According to Articles 28 and 29 of the Anti-Dumping Regulations, the investigation authority decided to implement provisional anti-dumping measures in the form of guarantee deposits. Starting from September 10, 2025, import operators must provide corresponding guarantee deposits to Chinese customs based on the guarantee deposit rates determined for each company in this preliminary ruling when importing investigated products.

According to General Administration of Customs data, from January to July 2025, China imported 1.39 million tons of pork and related by-products, with 690,000 tons imported from the EU, accounting for nearly 50%. Spain remains the largest import source country with 330,000 tons, accounting for approximately 24%.

Institutions note that China's pork production in 2024 was 57.06 million tons, with imports accounting for over 4% of production. The EU's long-term low-price dumping of related products has impacted domestic industry. After anti-dumping measures are implemented, increased import costs will affect import volumes, potentially reducing supply pressure on the domestic market.

At the industry level, pork prices continue to seek bottom. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' National Key Agricultural Product Market Information Platform, regarding live pig (pork) production prices, current live pig market prices (online) have fallen below 14 yuan/kg, with September 8, 2025 live pig market price (online) at 13.87 yuan/kg. In comparison, late July 2025 live pig market price (online) was 14.22 yuan/kg, end of 2024 was 15.98 yuan/kg, and August 2024 peaked at over 21 yuan/kg.

For pork consumer prices, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data, recent pork wholesale prices once fell below 20 yuan/kg, with September 8, 2025 pork wholesale price at 20.10 yuan/kg and September 7, 2025 at 19.63 yuan/kg. In comparison, late July 2025 pork wholesale price was 20.50 yuan/kg, end of 2024 was 22.37 yuan/kg, and August 2024 peaked at over 27 yuan/kg.

Additionally, according to recent August sales reports from listed pig enterprises, several major listed pig companies saw sales volumes generally increase both year-over-year and month-over-month, but prices declined both year-over-year and month-over-month.

On the capacity side, breeding sow inventory slightly declined month-over-month in August. According to steel union statistics, August breeding sow inventory decreased 0.80%, compared to flat in July.

Notably, China has been promoting anti-involution measures in the pig industry in recent months. On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' Bureau of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine held a symposium on promoting high-quality development of the pig industry, inviting leading enterprises from the pig breeding industry chain. The meeting emphasized strict implementation of capacity regulation measures, reasonable culling of breeding sows, appropriate reduction of breeding sow inventory, reducing secondary fattening, controlling fat pig slaughter weight, and strictly controlling new capacity additions.

In early June, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a pig production scheduling meeting, aiming to reduce supply in the second half of this year by lowering average slaughter weight and limiting basic capacity by reducing 1 million head to stabilize supply in the first half of next year.

Huaxi Securities believes that in the medium to long term, inefficient capacity in China's domestic pig industry will gradually exit, price centers are expected to rise, high-quality capacity market share will increase, and companies with high breeding efficiency and excellent cost control will see further profit enhancement.

Kaiyuan Securities analysis indicates that the EU accounts for over 50% of China's imported pork and pork offal, and anti-dumping guarantee deposit collection may drive domestic pork price center upward. In the first half of 2025, China's pork and pork offal imports reached 1.15 million tons, with 600,000 tons imported from the EU, representing 52% of China's total pork and pork offal imports. With the implementation of guarantee deposit collection on EU pork and pork offal imports, rising import costs and reduced supply are expected to drive domestic pork price center upward.

Shanghai Steel Union Agricultural Products Division pig analyst Teng Yujie believes that anti-dumping measures may lead to relatively reduced pork supply on one hand, with by-products particularly affected by supply shocks, also impacting costs for catering industries and food processing enterprises relying on imports. On the other hand, narrowing price gaps between imported and domestic pork will favor demand shifting to domestic sources. From a medium to long-term perspective, this helps reconstruct market competition patterns, strengthen stability of domestic pig industry chains, and promote market entry into a rebalancing phase.

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DEKON AGR (02419): DEKON AGR announced that in August 2025, the company sold 813,100 live pigs (including 784,300 commercial meat pigs) with sales revenue of RMB 1.432 billion. In August 2025, the company's commercial meat pig average selling price was RMB 13.74/kg, down 3.31% from July 2025. For the 8 months ending August 31, 2025, the company sold a total of 6.711 million live pigs (including 6.3704 million commercial meat pigs) with sales revenue of RMB 12.882 billion.

COFCO JOYCOME (01610): At the end of August, DBS issued a research report stating that COFCO JOYCOME (01610) turned profitable in the first half but underperformed expectations due to declining pig prices and pressure on feed business profit margins. Despite weak pig prices, the company will further reduce costs and increase efficiency in the second half, supporting profit margin expansion. Based on weak pig prices, the bank lowered 2025 and 2026 earnings forecasts by 25% and 6% respectively, maintaining "Buy" rating due to steady production expansion and quarterly profit margin improvement. Based on upgraded long-term profit margin outlook, target price raised from HK$1.89 to HK$2.28.

WH GROUP (00288): In mid-August, CLSA issued a research report stating that WH GROUP (00288) achieved 10.4% year-over-year growth in operating profit for the first half of 2025, with operating profit margin improving by 1.4 percentage points. Sales increased 8.9% year-over-year, the best performance since the second half of 2020. The bank maintains WH GROUP's "Outperform" rating and raised target price to HK$9.26.