GTHT has released a research report maintaining an Overweight rating on the aviation and oil tanker shipping sectors. 1) Aviation: A super cycle may be commencing. Load factors are hitting record highs while airfares remain at relatively low levels. With fare marketization and low supply growth, increasing demand is expected to drive profit growth. Strong performance during the Spring Festival peak season and subsequent positive fundamental feedback are anticipated to gradually catalyze optimistic expectations. 2) Oil Tanker Shipping: Future industry prosperity is expected to continue exceeding expectations. Monitoring changes in the grey market is advised. Additionally, the anti-involution trend in the express delivery sector in 2026 may surpass expectations, with profitability recovery expected to persist. GTHT's main views are as follows:

Aviation: The 2026 Spring Festival travel period has officially begun, and the upward trend in airfares is expected to continue favorably. The 2026 travel rush started on February 2nd. With students beginning their holidays and migrant workers starting their journeys home, total passenger traffic volume in the first five days (up to February 6th) increased by 2% year-on-year. Road traffic grew by 2%, rail traffic declined by 1%, while air traffic surged by 6%. It is noted that road and rail sectors have significant capacity elasticity, and growth rates might be affected by the timing of weekends. GTHT expects growth rates to increase next week alongside the pre-holiday travel peak. Recently, both passenger load factors and airfares in the civil aviation market have maintained positive year-on-year growth. The firm believes robust travel demand during the Spring Festival period, coupled with limited overall capacity additions in both rail and air transport, will benefit airline revenue management. Given favorable advance ticket sales trends, GTHT anticipates the upward year-on-year trend in airfares will continue. Combined with an expected year-on-year decrease in oil prices in Q1 2026, airline profits during the peak season are projected to improve significantly year-on-year, with the possibility of industry-wide profitability in Q1. It is highlighted that China's aviation sector has entered an era of low supply growth, and with fares now market-based, steady demand growth and deepening anti-involution efforts are expected to drive sustainable increases in fares and profits, offering potential for both earnings and valuation expansion. Investors are advised to position for the long-term "super cycle" logic. Recommended stocks include Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines.

Oil Tanker Shipping: Geopolitical tensions and high owner sentiment continue to support elevated freight rates. Since August 2025, increased crude oil production and stricter sanctions on Russian oil have driven high tanker utilization rates, significantly raising the freight rate benchmark and increasing rate volatility. Since the start of 2026, geopolitical tensions have intensified, owner sentiment remains high, and some international owners have increased chartering to control market supply, keeping tanker rates at elevated levels recently. Last week, VLCC Time Charter Equivalent rates on the Middle East-China route remained above $120,000. It is noted that owner sentiment may continue to influence short-term rates. GTHT suggests focusing on the year-on-year upward trend in the rate benchmark and forecasts that tanker profits in Q1 2026 could increase several-fold year-on-year. It is emphasized that investing in oil tanker shipping is not a short-term play on geopolitics but is underpinned by a long-term "super bull market" thesis. The firm is optimistic that global crude oil production increases will continue to drive demand for tanker shipping, while accelerated fleet aging will ensure rigid supply constraints for compliant vessels. Monitoring grey market developments is recommended, as geopolitical situations may provide optionality for supply-demand surprises. Recommended stocks include COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation, China Merchants Energy Shipping, China Merchants Nanjing Tanker, and CSSC Shipping Leasing.

Express Delivery: Anti-involution efforts in 2026 may exceed expectations, supporting continued profitability recovery. 1) Parcel volume growth in 2025 was high initially but slowed later: Full-year parcel volume grew 13.6% year-on-year. Factors such as high e-commerce operating costs and a warm winter contributed to a slowdown in December, with growth dropping to 2%. YTO Express, Yunda Holdings, STO Express, and SF Holding saw year-on-year growth rates of 9%, -7%, 11%, and 9% respectively in December. 2) Decline in industry average unit price narrowed: The ongoing "anti-involution" trend, combined with a low base from price wars in the same period of 2024, led to a narrowing of the year-on-year decline in average revenue per parcel to 2% in December. YTO, Yunda, STO, and SF reported December unit revenue changes of -2%, +6%, +15%, and -5% year-on-year, respectively. The intensity and sustainability of the industry's "anti-involution" trend in 2026 are expected to surpass expectations, effectively easing competitive pressures, gradually lifting price levels, and supporting a continued recovery in profitability. The firm remains positive on leading express delivery companies that are continuously optimizing their business structures and building differentiated competitive advantages. Recommended stocks include SF Holding, ZTO Express, and J&T Express, with related watchlist candidates being YTO Express, STO Express, and Yunda Holdings.

Risk warnings include economic fluctuations, tariffs, geopolitical developments, oil price and exchange rate volatility, and safety incidents.